be very close. However we have a "gut feeling'' that it will not be as close as 1993 in terms of the few votes which decided the seats.

Some things are clear.

The UBP is together and fighting hard for its continued success. The UBP faithful fear the winds of change after 30 years of victories. They know that the days of automatic wins are over. Today's voters ask, "Why should we?'' That is as it should be.

The PLP is buoyant and confident and the expectations of PLP adherents are very, very high. They sense that their time and their turn may finally have come.

The imponderables in this election are just how many people feel that it is "time for a change'' or "time to let the PLP have a turn'' and how many of those will change their minds when faced by the ballot box. Also, how many disenchanted UBP supporters are now becoming frightened at the thought of change from what they know and will go "back home'' and vote UBP.

Both parties claim that their polls are favourable but the last time we saw a poll there were still a large number of people who said that they did not know or were undecided. Some of those "don't knows'' know perfectly well but do not want to tell the pollster. Some like to play a little game with the political parties, often because they are tired of being polled.

Huge sums of money have been spent by both parties in recent weeks on advertising designed to get the votes of the don't knows. For the first time since party politics came to Bermuda, the PLP has had plenty of money for its campaign and cannot complain that only the UBP has rich supporters. Inevitably many people have questioned the sudden source of the PLP's cash and whether or not there might be strings attached.

Once again the result of the election will rest on marginals but this time the configuration of the marginals is somewhat different. In our view, St.

George's, North and South, may hold the keys to power. Once a UBP stronghold, the East End may now be the deciding factor in Election '98.

The other marginals are, of course, Warwick West and Hamilton West where the UBP will have to do well if it is to win. Both are so close and so volatile that anyone who is making predictions is taking a great chance.

The results will hang on which party is most effective in getting out the voters.

In most countries the economy decides elections and the UBP has a buoyant economy to its advantage. It also has over 30 years of experience and economic success to its credit.

There is a story that a visitor to the magnificent St. Paul's Cathedral in London asked if there was a memorial to its great architect, Sir Christopher Wren.

The reply was, "Look around you.'' The UBP is able to say to those voters who question its successes: "Look around you.''