Confidence in the future stability of Bermuda tourism is patchy among local hoteliers. Some are just looking forward to a good summer, relative to the last decade, and hope wistfully for a sustained resurgence in the key industry.

Bermuda Hotel Association executive vice president, John Harvey, conceded that in the last decade, July had been less than a stellar performer, in terms of tourism yields.

He said, "July hasn't been the best month in recent years. I remember 15 years ago it was May and October that were the booming months, and then it was June. A couple of years ago it was the steamy months of August and maybe July, that were the best months for tourism.

"There is no real science to it anymore. And sometimes it is a little patchy.

Great occupancy today, not so good tomorrow.'' Hoteliers have rights under collective bargaining arrangements with the Bermuda Industrial Union to affect temporary lay-offs when occupancy dips below 70 percent.

It was a provision that was put into place to protect them from high overheads during the once traditional tourism slow down during the first quarter of the calendar year. No one dreamed it would be put in use during the once busy summer months.

In more recent years, such lay-offs are not so uncommon during the May to October period. It has been clear for years that some hotels have not been enjoying 70 percent summer occupancy on a daily basis.

Long time hotelier, Mike Winfield, believes there can be no real talk of a turnaround until hotels enjoy an average 80 percent plus occupancy for the May through October period.

The boss at Cambridge Beaches, Mr. Winfield would not discuss the hotel's occupancy, but he said, "The fact that there are lay-offs occurring in Bermuda in-season is indicative of the long term problem we have.'' Marriott's Castle Harbour Hotel has just come off a June that was the busiest month of the year, including an occupancy of almost 90 percent. Said Marriott general manager, Mark Conklin, "July is less than that, but is still above the 1996 July level, which wasn't a great year. The summer months, in particular July and August, appear soft. Our September business looks much better than 1996.

"We had a great year through June, with business levels significantly higher than 1996. And apart from the softness in July and August, our preliminary projections for the balance of the year look encouraging.'' Hoteliers gloomy over tourism prospects For the Marriott operators of Castle Harbour Hotel, it may be reason for pause. Long standing rumours have held that they were ready to give up on Bermuda, after failing to make a profit over too many years on significant investment. Tens of millions were spent upgrading an ageing hotel and building a new wing.

Should a sustained resurgence occur in Bermuda's once proud tourism industry, the Marriott organisation might see a brighter future for the plush Bermuda resort.

Mr. Conklin said, "Marriott is certainly concerned as has been the case every year, with the business level of Bermuda and the profitability of Castle Harbour. But absolutely no decision has been made to quit and having the good year we are experiencing in 1997 is very encouraging.'' Meanwhile, an upbeat general manager at Elbow Beach Hotel, Bill Shoaf, was optimistic the South Shore resort could avoid any lay-offs this summer. The hotel is full.

He said, "Knock on wood, but things look good. We're enjoying occupancy levels that include projections of July coming in 16 points ahead of last year. Our booking pace for August is about double what it was last year. We could be above last year's August by 15-20 percent. September, we are up by 50 percent.

"June we finished four points ahead of last year, which was the best month last year. July we are looking to be ahead by 12-13 percent.'' Mr. Conklin believes Bermuda could gain from a long hard look at the tourism product. He said government figures show that half of departing visitors had something unfavourable to say about their stay.

He said, "Bermuda cannot operate as a low-end destination, because the structure here does not allow it. It would be financial suicide. Bermuda has always been a high-end resort. I was here 22 years ago and it was expensive then.

"But it is an issue of welcoming people back, saying goodbye when they go.

Simple efforts like these we see in Elbow Beach staff, and it is showing in our figures. I know it is the good service and warms smiles from our staff because I talk to the guests and read their comment cards.

"They spend a lot of money here and they can tell our staff are aware of it, and appreciate it. With that going for you, the other wonderful things about Bermuda, including the weather, the beach, and the Island's proximity to the east coast's major markets, start working in our favour.'' Mr. Shoaf denied that the hotel's return to success was based on discounting.

He said, "Our average daily rate is up seven percent, and our occupancy is up 15-20 percent. Although, overall, there has been pressure in recent years on hotel rates for Bermuda properties.

"But Bermuda's departing visitors are not saying that it is too expensive.

They are saying they don't get their money's worth. People know they are going to an expensive resort, like Rome or Monte Carlo. You just can't operate it like a bargain basement Caribbean resort.

"You don't know the amount of positive comments I get about the smile of our doorman (Millard Lightbourne). It costs him nothing to smile, but it is great for our business. He makes Elbow Beach for me.

"We have to stop talking about what is wrong and go back and remember what we did that was right.'' Smaller hotel, Ariel Sands, is projecting a soft July, but improvements in August with strong group business. Long term projections for September and October remain uncertain.

General manager, Jason Powell, said, "It seems to be coming together but I'm not sure that it will be a great year. Part of the problem is the airlift.

July is a bit of a mess because of expensive airfares.

"August is looking good, and I think that September and October could look good for us as well. With the substantial re-investment in our property and a lot of overseas press, we are starting to see an upward trend. The whole Island, I think is coming to grips with the fact that we haven't been number one for some time, but we must strive to get there again.'' Mr. Winfield said that Bermuda had lost the edge that came from being able to reinvest in hotel infrastructure annually. Few properties, he said, made the money needed for refurbishment to attract today's market, let alone tomorrow's market.

He said, "It's not just a tourism cycle that's the problem. It's more systemic. We are not offering as attractive a product as we used to. "No amount of marketing, slick campaigns or good advertising will solve the problem. We are charging high rates, so we have to give value for money. We can't afford to discount, because we then decrease revenue and reduce our ability to reinvest in all of our properties.

"There's a lot of discounting going on and it's suicidal, addressing the short term need of filling beds and ignoring the long term need of continued profit and reinvestment. You need to make a long term plan, identifying problems such as the need for more varied guest activities, and the need to offer value for money in services where it is missing.

"We have depreciated our view of what first class service is and we have to wake up and realise that we are being judged internationally. International perspectives of international service are high. We may well be the grand old dame of tourism, but we need waking up.'' John Harvey -- `There is no real science to it anymore. Great occupancy today, not so good tomorrow.' Michael Winfield -- `It's not just a tourism cycle that's the problem. We are not offering an attractive enough product.'