others leaves a large question mark around the United Bermuda Party's election chances in one of Bermuda's key parishes.

Warwick East and Warwick West are among a handful of constituencies where general elections are won and lost.

A general election does not have to be held until late in 1998. But the governing UBP holds a slim 21-18 edge in the House of Assembly and party chairman Sen. Gary Pitman has said election readiness is his top priority for the coming year.

UBP insiders agree the situation in Warwick is a source of concern and there is "a lot of work to be done.'' Former Premier Sir John Sharpe, who represented Warwick West for 30 years before losing his seat in the 1993 election, has announced that he will not run again.

In Warwick East, longtime Cabinet Minister and now backbencher Mr. Irving Pearman has been musing aloud about retirement. And when Mr. Gerald Simons was dropped from Cabinet and the Senate in August, Premier David Saul said it was because he wanted to devote more time to his business at Argus Insurance.

Neither Mr. Pearman nor Mr. Simons attended last week's annual general meeting in Warwick East. Both men were non-committal on Monday about whether they intended to run again.

"It's a bit early for that sort of thing,'' Mr. Pearman said. Whether he would be a Warwick East candidate was "still under review.'' However, "I'm still active in Warwick East and I plan to continue to be.'' Mr. Simons said he would check with party officials and call back. "I'll see what the folks are saying,'' he said.

Mr. Simons did not call back. Sen. Gary Pitman, the UBP chairman, later said he did not want to rule out Mr. Simons returning as a candidate, but "right now he's not available.'' In Warwick West, the branch annual general meeting which would normally be held this month has been postponed until January. "We wanted to do a bit more work,'' said Home Affairs and Public Safety Minister Mr. Quinton Edness, 64, who confirmed that he will be running again.

Community and Culture Minister Sen. Yvette Swan is tipped to succeed Sir John as the running mate for Mr. Edness.

Whether the Jamaican-born Sen. Swan has the same voter appeal that Sir John did remains to be seen.

Meanwhile, there has been a dearth of names put forward as possible UBP candidates in Warwick East, should either or both the present candidates step down.

If Dr. Saul had any prospective successors to Mr. Simons and Mr. Pearman in mind, he could have placed one or more in the Senate after he was chosen party leader in August, but did not do so. Government Senate Leader Sen. Lynda Milligan-Whyte, who Dr. Saul returned to the Upper Chamber, has been mentioned as a possible candidate in Warwick East.

"We are looking at Warwick long and hard,'' said Sen. Pitman, himself an approved candidate who has been mentioned as a possibility on the ballot in Warwick West.

While no names could yet be announced, "we have a good number of potential candidates in both districts,'' Mr. Edness said. "We certainly don't intend to lose Warwick.'' The Progressive Labour Party, meanwhile, in in comparatively good shape in Warwick in terms of election readiness.

While final decisions still must be made through the PLP's candidate selection committee, it is likely that incumbents Mr. Alex Scott in Warwick East and Dr.

Ewart Brown in Warwick West would again be joined by their 1993 running mates -- Mr. Calvin Smith and Mr. George Scott respectively.

Questions have been raised about Dr. Brown's eligibility to run, in light of the fact he obtained US citizenship in 1990. But he has said that if he had to make a choice he would renounce his American ties in order to stay in Bermuda's House of Assembly.

Mr. Smith, who manages the Bermuda Industrial Union Credit Union, said on Monday he was interested in running again in Warwick East, if the party approved him. Mr. George Scott could not be reached for comment.

"Certainly, they would probably be likely aspirants as to those two posts,'' Mr. Alex Scott said of Mr. George Scott and Mr. Smith.

Mr. Alex Scott, who was a PLP campaign co-chairman in the 1993 election, said improved party fortunes meant more potential PLP candidates were expressing interest earlier in running in the next election.

"There will be competition for seats,'' he said. "There is interest in Warwick and other areas.'' However, "I would never underestimate the preparedness of the UBP in any campaign,'' he said. "They have a pretty awesome election machine that they can whip into shape in no time flat.'' In 1993, Mr. Pearman topped the polls in Warwick East with 897 votes while Mr.

Alex Scott was a close second with 894. Rounding out the polls were: Mr.

Smith, 854; Mr. Simons, 832; the National Liberal Party's Ms Debra Saltus, 159; and Independent Ms Patricia Gordon-Pamplin, 68.

In Warwick West, Mr. Edness was tops with 960 votes, while Dr. Brown followed with 958. The also-rans were: Sir John with 944; Mr. George Scott with 881, the NLP's Ms Dessaline Waldron with 52; and Independent Mr. David Burch with 22.

The recently-tabled report of the Constituency Boundaries Commmission will have an effect on Warwick in the next vote, but analysts have been unable to say which, if either party, the changes favour.

In the Cedar Hill area, 201 voters are moving to Warwick East from Warwick West, and in the Jones' Village area, 241 voters are moving to Warwick West from Warwick East.

Sources said the changes could slightly favour the UBP in Warwick East while favouring the PLP in Warwick West.