has reemerged in the wake of an October election during which it was hardly mentioned. During the campaign, the politicians were unwilling to take chances with their success if they came out of the closet with either income tax or Independence. We find it somewhat cowardly that politicians stayed away from Independence as an election issue but are now willing to surprise the public with a post election Independence debate.

One thing is very clear to us. The Progressive Labour Party has been calling for a General Election to be fought soon on Independence but that will not happen. The United Bermuda Party will be most unlikely to risk its future on another election given the close vote last October. Why should it? The PLP did not make Independence an election issue but raises it now and demands an election clearly because its leaders think it might have a chance of winning and is willing to take that chance. As we see it, that thinking may well be wrong and Independence is probably now what it always was, an election handicap.

There is another factor for the UBP. It should be understood that if the UBP begins an Independence debate it takes the risk of seriously splitting itself between some senior politicians who favour Independence and an enlargement of the group which once supported the Concerned Bermudians and is unalterably opposed to Independence. The UBP has an insoluble problem, its hard core supporters do not want what the leaders want. While some of the UBP leaders favour Independence, we think most of the UBP supporters are opposed to Independence.

A referendum on Independence may be somewhat more likely than an election but the truth is that a properly conducted opinion poll, after some public debate, would produce the same answers. The UBP, which polls regularly, may well know the answer already. We do not know, but we think that a poll today would probably show that there has not been much shift in the public's thinking on Independence and that the PLP gain in October's election does not mean that the PLP has support for Independence.

The truth seems to be that the majority of the public has some real doubts about what benefits will result from Independence and what the costs will be, especially in light of the cash Bermuda is losing from the bases closures. In the end, we think Independence will be decided if and when the people think it will provide a financial edge or a better life than Bermuda has today. Given the record standard of living in Bermuda, it will be difficult to convince a majority of the people that Independence will be a cash advantage or that it can produce a better life.

Some of the public makes the mistake of seeing Independence only in emotional terms. There is a frightening lack of reality which leads some to feel that there is magic in Independence and all Bermuda's problems will be cured by the changing of flags. The kiss of Independence will not automatically make anything better. The truth is that nothing internally is likely to change much because Bermudians are as free now as anyone else.

Externally we will have to assume some of the burdens now assumed for us by Britain which has been remarkably accommodating in allowing Bermuda to talk with other countries on her own and for herself.

But Bermudians must consider whether or not the politicians may be right and Bermuda would gain more in the long-run from Independence even though the short term has every likelihood of being difficult. Those who believe Independence is magic will likely be made very unhappy when they have their expectations dashed. Bermudians have it had it good for a long time and do not like to be inconvenienced. They are not going to enjoy post-Independence difficulties and more than they enjoyed the problems over which we had no control but which resulted from the recession.