Tourism officials are keeping their fingers crossed that 1999 will be the year that arrivals hit rock bottom -- and prompt the recovery process.

Minister David Allen is optimistic that the year, which is set to record lower air arrivals than 1998, will see a "bottoming out'' affect, as the Island sees its bed capacity drop below 7,000 for the first time in years.

But he is hopeful that visitor numbers in 2000 will hold level, laying the foundation for increases in the following year.

The year has almost been written off, with the combined affect of the Marriott and Belmont closures depleting the marketing muscle of major hotel chains from five to three.

"It is an uphill struggle to surpass last year at this stage,'' Mr. Allen said. "It has been very flat, we knew from the beginning there were great challenges.

"Our next hope is to arrest the decline and after that start reversing the decline.'' Mr. Allen is now looking to the early months of next year to provide a bright spot, with convention bookings and a world chess tournament boosting occupancy.

But for this year he said the loss of the Marriott and at the end of 1998, the Belmont, had diminished Bermuda's presence in the overseas marketplace and lost 800 beds.

The loss of the Marriott and Forte marketing machinery -- which coordinated publicity, bookings and advertising for the hotels -- has left Bermuda with three chains, Rafael, Fairmont and Sonesta.

And with the Castle Harbour in "wind down'' mode for much of the year, it follows that Marriott would have stopped marketing Bermuda, and both chains would have redirected visitors to their other properties.

The Minister said the hotel had effectively been ticking over since June, and he believed the falls in September and October visitor numbers reflected that.

The Tourism Ministry has had an increase in budget and has tried to fill the void, but Mr. Allen said they could not be expected to totally make up for the loss of two chains.

"Government can't do everything so we have to strike a balance,'' he said.

"We have been more aggressive in our marketing this year. What we are doing now is creating a foundation of awareness.'' He added that the lost presence in the US would start to be redressed when the planned Regent International Hotel takes shape at Castle Harbour, and as the new Daniel's Head eco-resort comes on line.

Next year there are expected to be an additional 18,000 extra airline seats, with new flights anticipated out of Atlanta and St. Louis, Missouri, which could have a positive influence on numbers.