conventional wisdom about crime in Bermuda: many of the offences are committed by a very few people.

More often than not, sudden increases in purse snatches, break-ins and robberies turn out to be connected to the release of a habitual offender from prison.

Close observers of the court system will also know that very often the perpetrators have gone on crime sprees to feed their drug habits.

Therefore, rises and falls in crimes in particular categories may have nothing to do with good or bad policing and everything to with whether a repeat offender is behind bars or free.

That means that while the incidence of most major crimes was lower in 1998 than in 1997, it does not mean the same trend will continue in 1999.

In a candid statement, Supt. Richmond said: "The revolving door system I have experienced in 32 years of policing here exists without really any improvement. I tend to think there are inadequacies in the rehabilitation process.'' This raises two issues. The first is the protection and safety of the public.

If the bulk of crimes are being committed by a very small number of people, then the easiest way to ensure the safety of the community is to lock those people up and throw away the key.

But that is no real answer. Quite apart from the expense and inconvenience involved, we have some responsibility to try to ensure that all individuals are healthy and productive members of society.

There is some evidence to show that intensive rehabilitation does work and there are people walking the streets and sitting in offices today who are living examples of that. But the inmate being rehabilitated has to want to change and not all do.

When Westgate was built, it was supposed to provide the services Casemates lacked. More education, drugs rehabilitation and counselling services were supposed to reduce the recidivism rate. Not all those services are available, according to inmates coming out of prison. And allegations that drugs are available in prison also indicate that standards within the Prison Service are lower than they should be.

On the other hand, Prisons Commissioner Edward Dyer has stated that not all inmates take advantage of the services that are offered.

What may work is a carrot and stick approach: Inmates who do take advantage of rehabilitation services should be rewarded with early release and greater privileges. To some extent this is already being done.

But repeat offenders who show no interest in reforming themselves should know that they will pay the consequences the next time they appear in court. Judges and magistrates should know what services were available to repeat offenders and whether they took advantage of them. Where they failed to do so, their sentences should be long with little prospect of parole.