Only one thing is clear and that is it will take place during 1998. However we have concluded without any inside information that it will take place sooner rather than later, probably during May. The political parties do not like to campaign before Bermuda has daylight saving time because that extends evening daylight hours on the doorsteps where Bermuda's elections are won. Candidates do not like to climb up and down the hills during the summer because it is too hot and voters are out enjoying themselves and thus less accessible.

September or November seem unlikely to us because the Premier will want to try for her own mandate from the voters, especially since she is functioning under a UBP majority achieved by Sir John Swan with two years of David Saul in between.

The decision rests with Premier Pamela Gordon alone, presumably after consulting her party hierarchy. Until recently it was clear that the UBP was not ready for an election. Candidates were not in place and the campaign committee was in disarray. That seems to have changed dramatically in recent months. When you review the constituencies now there are people in place with only a few exceptions like St. George's South and Pembroke East Central.

There are repeated rumours that the Premier herself might switch from Southampton West to Pembroke East Central and work to pick up a UBP seat there. The UBP did win there once but only because the National Liberal Party's Charles Jeffers took votes away from the PLP. That could happen again if Mr. Jeffers decides to run there.

We think the decision on when to go will depend on the Premier's assessment of how the public has received Dr. Grant Gibbons' new Budget for 1998 and whether or not the "people's budget'' has led to UBP votes.

It will also depend on whether or not the Premier's star performances at crucial meetings in London and Nassau have translated into UBP votes. Her personal popularity is extremely high in the polls, probably higher than any other Premier, ever. However the public should not confuse the Premier's personal favourability with favourability towards the UBP, the two are very different. Sir John Swan had very high favourability ratings which did not seem to rub-off on other candidates simply because Bermudians tend to vote locally rather than in support of a popular leader.

The timing of the election will also depend on the outcome of the by-election in Hamilton Parish East. If Francis Furbert were to win back the seat for the UBP it would be seen as a major coup. The district is marginal and volatile.

Both Mr. Furbert and PLP candidate Derrick Burgess have lost there before. The contest appears about even. That is why the UBP has been blanketing the area with top members of the party who are working hard. They want to win back the Trevor Woolridge seat and they want it bad. A win would boost the party toward a General Election.

Those factors will weigh heavily on the Premier and we think that in the end it will be a May election.