for the debate over Independence. Paget East was once the scene of a bloody primary battle between the late Dr. John Stubbs and Mrs. Ann Cartwright DeCouto which, at the time, gave the public the firm impression that the UBP was at war with itself. The UPB would not want that to happen again, especially at this time in a safe seat.

We think that in 1994, without Independence as an issue, this seat would simply pass from Dr. John Stubbs to a hand-picked UBP candidate without much of a ripple. Remembering the fallout from the Stubbs-Cartwright DeCouto battle which turned out to be anti-feminist, and in the wake of the battering the UBP took in the October election, the UBP would be anxious to appear organised, unified and in control. That is clearly not going to be the case.

The rules covering the UBP primary and the by-election provide very little time for anyone to plan a proper campaign. The rules also make it difficult for new candidates to get themselves known and their views understood by the voters in the area. That means that the people will vote on first impressions.

We think that in Paget East that will amount to a vote for or against Independence.

The UBP voters in Paget East are the first to have the opportunity of an election to demonstrate their views on Independence. We do not think they will give much consideration to any other issue nor do we think they are very interested in any other political issue at this time.

In considering this vote, we have to remember that Paget East is not representative of the whole of Bermuda. It is an unlikely place to test Independence to get a clear view of the people's wishes. Clearly this is not the area where people in favour of Independence would like to have it tested.

The whole situation is doubly complicated because the Premier, Sir John Swan, holds a Paget East seat and the conservative white voters of Paget East may take the by-election as an opportunity to send him a message.

That makes the by-election very complicated for anyone associated with the Premier. His views on Independence are well known yet we think that a by-election candidate supporting Independence in Paget East will lose, be it the primary or the election.

We think that in the primary election, the UBP candidate who is most firmly opposed to Independence is the most likely to win. In Paget East support for Independence would almost certainly guarantee a primary loss. However, the by-election may be different.

By-elections are traditionally a time for voters to rebel and have their say without too much disruption. It may be that the voters of Paget East will decide to send a strong message to the Premier by abandoning the UBP temporarily and voting for an independent. If we are correct about any of this, it will be an almost impossible election for anyone who supports Independence.