Bermuda's sagging visitor numbers appear likely to recover in the last months of the year, a Tourism Department document indicates.

Reports from North American-based wholesalers show customer phone volume and booking activity for Bermuda increasing.

The activity seems to "indicate that business is moving in a positive direction again and bodes well for October and November,'' says the document obtained by The Royal Gazette .

The reports are the first positive sign since the Island's solid improvement over 1993 tourism results began to wither in late August. Since then, weekly air arrivals have consistently been below levels achieved in 1993, which at best showed only mild recovery from the poor results of recession.

The week ending Sunday, October 2 is an example of the recent decline. A Government release showed 9,358 air travellers coming to the Island -- 4.7 percent below the number for the same week last year.

It was the sixth straight week of decline.

For the year to date, air arrivals are up 2.2 percent -- a far cry from the Tourism Minister's bold prediction earlier this year of a ten percent improvement for the year.

Wholesaler reports are considered barometers of business activity.

Collectively they book a big chunk of Bermuda's vacations -- about 40 percent.

"Any trends that they identify may give us some clues as to how to re-focus or re-target our message,'' Tourism director Mr. Gary Phillips said.

"They also give us an opportunity to understand why we've not reached a specific target in particular regions.'' The Tourism memorandum speculates that a Caribbean air fare and hotel sale which was in effect earlier this summer for September-to-November travel "seems to have had a negative effect on our September business.'' Mr. Phillips said Tourism did not try to counter the sales out of the Caribbean because of the very low prices on offer. One wholesaler, for example, reported a seven night air inclusive package to St. Maarten in September selling at a rock-bottom $399.

Airlines were also part of the price discounting, trying to get more sales to fill empty seats.

"The only thing we can on that score is to try and encourage the airliners to offer the same sales to Bermuda,'' Mr. Phillips said.

Mr. Phillips noted the wholesalers' projections were more positive than they have been over the past couple of months.

Although room for any kind of significant business boost is limited in the slower final months of the year "there us still an opportunity to capitalise on the growing positive trend.'' Mr. Phillips estimated the rise in business could boost arrivals figures by a percentage point to leave the Island about 3.8 percent above 1993 by year end.

Most of the wholesalers reported their business was up overall compared to 1993 -- an indication that the travel market is pulling away from recession albeit slowly.

In some cases, Bermuda is well ahead of the business pace for the region.

Some typical assessments by wholesalers in the Tourism Department document dated September 30 are as follows: One wholesaler was "projecting a strong end to high season and a good November to March season based on advanced bookings and the fact consumers are booking more business earlier and seem to be spending more on vacations.'' Although gross bookings for Bermuda were well ahead of regional bookings at one wholesaler -- 55 percent compared to 20 percent -- September was marked by a slowdown. The wholesaler attributed it to normal seasonal drop and late summer domestic travel. Advance bookings for October were considered encouraging with bookings 50 percent greater than October 1993.

One wholesaler reported early fall business generally off and that bookings taken in September for travel through September were flat (901 vs 900 in 1993).

The wholesaler noted, however, that his company's phone volume "had picked up during the last week of September.'' He also added that his company's fall Caribbean sale might have affected Bermuda's September through December business.

Another wholesaler reported weekly bookings to Bermuda in September were 10 to 20 percent down from the same time last year. Very low priced packages to the Caribbean may have diverted some of Bermuda's business.

Despite the slide, the wholesaler predicted October and November would be "fairly strong.'' Some wholesale companies selling Bermuda include Certified Vacations, Go Go Tours, Holiday House, TNT Haley and Thomas Cook Vacations.