Progressive Labour Party coasts along not saying very much probably because the hierarchy has decided not to take the chance of making a mistake. The "PLP green'' ads for candidates continue to run and the party holds firm but stays quiet knowing that the next General Election is the best chance it has ever had of winning. Like most recent General Elections, the coming one will be won and lost in the marginals, both Warwick constituencies, Hamilton Parish West and, this time, St. George's South which was once a very safe UBP seat but now gives every indication of being marginal. The situation there has been clouded by the defection of Grace Bell from the UBP to the PLP but the addition of the Rev. Larry Lowe to the PLP ticket would seem to give the PLP a very strong combination. Whether or not people agree with ministers in Parliament the Rev. Lowe is a strong, popular candidate. Then too the UBP is yet to announce a replacement for the indomitable Mrs. Bell who now seems to be out in the cold. In Warwick the UBP is counting on experience to win in the West with veteran Quinton Edness who will probably run and who has a good chance of winning. His running mate, Yvette Swan, has had experience in the Senate and as a Cabinet minister. Dr. Swan has been a very constructive Senator and she has amply demonstrated that she can be very hard working and very effective in a ministry but the fact that she is not Bermudian born could make a difference.

The most controversial issue in Bermudian politics also exists in Warwick West and that is the fact that Ewart Brown, who swore allegiance to the United States, sits in the House of Assembly in violation of the Constitution. Dr.

Brown will doubtless run again and may well be challenged if he wins and there is the unknown factor of whether or not Warwick West voters are influenced by his Constitutional violation.

Warwick East is quite a different situation. UBP veteran John Irving Pearman is not running this time which has entirely changed the election in that constituency. UBP Senate Leader Bob Richards, a Warwick resident and son of the former UBP Premier, Sir Edward Richards, is running but his ability to win votes is untried. The PLP has a very strong slate in Alex Scott and Dale Butler. We would not be surprised to see Dale Butler top the poll there despite recent controversy over strapping students at his school. The PLP will want more than anything to re-elect Alex Scott who is their pit-bull. As of now, there is no announced UBP second candidate but there are constant reports that the UBP will put a political heavyweight there, hoping to retain John Irving Pearman's seat.

Hamilton West is always volatile and this time the district is different due to boundary changes. Two UBP Cabinet ministers hold it now and being in Cabinet is an advantage but they will not have the advantage the PLP's Julian Hall gave them last time when he was mired in controversy and failed to wage much of a campaign.

St. George's North is something of a mystery and hinges on the health of sitting PLP member Leon (Jimmy) Williams. Not long ago it was a safe UBP seat but now PLP leader Jennifer Smith is probably unbeatable but a new running mate could be vulnerable depending on who it is.

The real question mark which should not be underestimated is the National Liberal Party. When it was first formed, the NLP took its votes from the PLP, especially in Pembroke East central where the candidacy of Charles Jeffers once allowed a UBP victory. But we think the situation has changed and the NLP now takes its votes from the UBP. That certainly seemed to be the case during the elections Graeme Outerbridge fought for the NLP in Smith's South. While the NLP may not field many candidates in the next election, that party could change the political picture.