imminent, the outgoing Commanding Officer said yesterday.

Capt. James Arnold said the number of American military personnel in Bermuda would likely drop to about 325 in 15 months, from about 650 today.

That compared to about 1,600 in the early 1960s, and 950 as recently as two years ago.

Due to the collapse of the Soviet Union and its submarine threat, "the primary mission of this Base has been quickly dissipated,'' Capt. Arnold told The Royal Gazette in an exclusive interview yesterday.

"We will gradually get smaller,'' he said. "Whether someone should decide that it should be more severe than I anticipate is a subject for politics, economists, Congress, and budgets.'' He agreed with General Colin Powell, chairman of the US Joint Chiefs of Staff, who recently said there was no present military requirement for the Bermuda Base.

But that could change, he said.

Just as nobody predicted world changes that produced the peace dividend, unforeseen developments could again make Bermuda important to American defence, he said.

"We've gone through 52 years of a 99-year lease,'' he said. "How will we know whether there might not be some future requirement that will make Bermuda a cornerstone and a support centre?'' While further economies could be needed, the Base "would be worthwhile to hang onto''.

"The strong, positive, insightful, visionary logic of our nation's best leaders will look at considering whether the pricetag is appropriate,'' he said.

Capt. Arnold, 47, leaves Bermuda after two years on Friday for a new post in Norfolk, Virginia.

He said the Base had lost capabilities that included anti-submarine warfare, special intelligence communications, reserve training, equipment calibration, and specialised aircraft maintenance.

The US Navy's patrol squadron, C-130 aircraft, Annex straddling Sandys and Southampton, and nearby Naval Underwater Sea Centre at Tudor Hill were all effectively gone, he said.

The Base's explosive disposal unit would disappear within the year, while its school system would continue "for at least this year coming.'' Now, "the Naval Air Station is primarily associated with the airfield,'' and support for ships and submarines, he said.

When in 1948 the United States and United Kingdom amended its original 1941 base agreement to allow civil use of the military runway, the US became responsible for operating the airport and control tower and providing weather information and communications.

At least one year's notice was required before the Americans could abandon those obligations. "I personally would not want to see us pick up and go. I think we have a lot to gain by remaining.'' Capt. Arnold agreed that as activities at the Base centred increasingly around the airport, the benefits for Bermuda increased relative to America.

In 1992, 60 percent of airport traffic was commercial or general aviation, and only 40 percent was military, he said. The departure of the patrol squadron meant that ratio could now be 75 to 25, he said.

"Certainly, there's an awful lot of benefit that Bermuda gets. The issues of future economies at this Base could be germane and instrumental to its long-term existence.'' It could be important for the US and Bermuda to share responsibilities "to make it more attractive economically.'' The Base employed more than 75 Bermudians, and Capt. Arnold said he could not predict the number of job losses associated with the downsizing.

Ironically, changes at the Base could mean more jobs for Bermudians as they could do work now performed by US military personnel and civilians, he said.

US involvement in training was a possibility.

"I can tell you that there are several announcements that will yet come,'' and the Annex would likely be included in a list of closures and downsizings released in September or October, he said.

The downsizing at the East End came amid new investments at the Base, including the recent construction of two new school buildings and $120,000 in improvements to the barracks.

The school improvements were badly needed and planned three years ago, but could have taken a different form if the Navy had "a crystal ball.'' The North Atlantic Treaty Organisation recently invested $32 million on a new taxiway, hangar, and avionics facility. But the Naval Air Station was not a NATO base, and "the US will make a decision based on US economies,'' Capt.

Arnold said.