dollars a year.

The figure includes direct spending by the United States Navy, the cost of providing Navy services like air traffic control, and the indirect benefits as the American money circulates through the economy.

The US Congress was last night set to debate a Conference Report that cuts off funding for the Base as of September 1, 1995. The impact of that change has Government exploring cost-sharing options with the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation and others.

Government has yet to fix the exact cost of the US pull-out. But as recently as the Budget statement in April, Finance Minister the Hon. David Saul pegged direct 1991 spending by the Americans at $36 million, while another $9.7 million was spent on services like runway maintenance, air traffic control, weather forecasting, and maintenance and repair of the Longbird Bridge.

"These figures, significant as they are, exclude any assessment of the secondary impact of these monies as they are re-spent and circulated throughout the economy,'' Dr. Saul said.

"There is no doubt in my mind that that operation is going to cost us a great deal of money,'' Premier the Hon. Sir John Swan told the House of Assembly on Friday.

While the impact is a major one, the gradual downsizing of the Base has moderated its significance. To look at it another way, some of the shocks Dr.

Saul described are already being felt.

The 1991 figures were based on US Navy manpower numbers of 1,150 military personnel, 557 civilians, and 1,648 dependents. According to Navy figures, the presence at the Base has already dropped to 643 military, 499 civilians, and 1,112 dependents.

A 1993 report prepared for the Deputy Inspector General of the US Department of Defence said the total budget for the Base had dropped to $37.2 million this year from $49.2 million in 1993.

"The main purpose of the Naval Air Station Bermuda has evolved into operating a joint-use airfield that is largely to the benefit of the Government of Bermuda,'' the report said.

Of the military and civilian personnel assigned to the Base, about 75 percent were directly or indirectly connected with airfield operations, the report said.

While it is not expected it would take the same numbers to run a solely civilian Airport, estimated 1991 costs for Airport services were: $2.7 million for air traffic control; $2.5 million for crash and fire rescue; $1.5 million for weather services; $687,000 for search and rescue; and $674,000 for maintenance and utilities.

In addition to facing extra costs similar to those, Bermuda loses the amounts the Base spent each year on supplies, the monies personnel who lived off the base spent on rent, and other indirect revenues.

There are also the loss of Bermudian jobs on the Base, which not long ago numbered more than 200, but are now less than half of that.

And an environmental clean-up of the Base could cost more than $30 million.

While out of date, a 1987 impact study of the Bermudian Economy by Mr. Brian Archer helps to illustrate the wide scope of the Base's impact on Bermuda.

In 1985, the Base directly spent $17.1 million in Bermuda, excluding the salaries of US personnel, the report said. Almost $7.5 million was spent on goods and services directly, and US military and civilian personnel spent another $4.3 million of their salaries on goods and services in Bermuda.

Further, $4.5 million was paid as wages and salaries to 221 Bermudian employees, and $8.8 million was paid in housing rentals to Bermudians.

Business revenue generated totalled $62 million, while household income generated was $33 million, and the net impact on the Island's balance of payments was $3 million.