With the August 15 referendum just two weeks away, The Royal Gazette in the latest in a series of articles on Independence today looks at the contentious issue of costs.

Ask Health Minister the Hon. Quinton Edness about the costs of going it alone, and expect a tone of thinly-disguised exasperation.

"Costs are used to frighten people against Independence.'' Ask Education Minister the Hon. Clarence Terceira, and expect a well-drilled reply.

"Whatever you estimate multiply by two or three.'' Even costs, it seems, lose or gain importance depending on which side of the Independence fence you sit.

So much for the MPs. What about those outside politics? "I think the costs being suggested are very low, and there will be more costs involved if we actually go independent,'' says Chamber of Commerce president Mr. Robert (Bobby) Rego.

It is a view which immediately finds little favour with chairperson of the Committee for the Independence of Bermuda Mr. Walton Brown Jr.

"For the Chamber to talk about hidden costs is to some extent misleading ... cost in reality is not an issue.'' A non-issue ... a tool for scaremongering ... a matter to be gravely concerned about ... hidden costs ...

The public clamour for a clear-cut response to how much Bermuda will have to dig into its pockets for Independence has, perhaps inevitably, been left unanswered.

In February's Green Paper, a Government discussion document, a wide spread of possible costs was presented -- between $800,000 and $2.3 million a year.

Taking inflation into account the figures are far lower than the $1.2 million and $1.9 million outlined in the 1977 Green Paper.

This time, four Independence options have been put forward: Cost: $798,557, Ministry of External Affairs, partial membership in Commonwealth, and membership in some United Nations agencies.

Some $473,557 would be spent on the new Ministry of External Affairs, with the following breakdown: $101,160 for the Permanent Secretary's salary; $41,598 for an administrative assistant; $34,760 for a private secretary; $27,638 for a receptionist; $18,401 for staff benefits; $100,000 for professional/special services; $40,000 for office expenses; and $60,000 for travel/entertainment.

There would also be a $50,000 one-time cost to outfit offices.

The $325,000 UN agency costs would include subscriptions to such bodies as the International Telecommunications Union, the Universal Postal Union, the International Maritime Organisation and UNESCO.

Cost: $1,285,557, Ministry of External Affairs, full membership in Commonwealth and UN; Cost: $2,093,523, Ministry of External Affairs, full membership in Commonwealth and UN, London and New York missions; Each mission would have personnel costs of $183,933, covering a charge d'affaires, an administrative assistant, and a private secretary. And each mission would budget $50,000 for travel and entertainment.

Cost: $2,329,505, Ministry of External Affairs, full membership in Commonwealth and UN, ambassadors in New York and London.

The figures in the Green Paper have been greeted with a great deal of scepticism in some quarters, however.

Sceptics have pointed to "hidden costs'' such as the need for extra civil servants, capital projects, and renegotiating treaties.

Says Dr. Terceira, a staunch opponent to Independence: "I have always said from the beginning that having studied the experience of other countries, particularly those in the Caribbean, whatever has been estimated, be it in a Green Paper or White Paper, has always been underestimated.'' Dr. Terceira highlights the Bahamas, which went independent in 1973.

It is an interesting example.

The Bahamas had reckoned Independence would cost them $320,000 in the first year, but the actual cost was $1.2 million, and in 1974, government spending increased 19 percent over the previous year.

In addition, at the time of Independence, Education had the biggest budget; this was soon replaced by public debt servicing.

The Bahamas national debt servicing allocation was just $10.9 million in 1972.

By 1985, it was $105.5 million, nearly a tenfold increase and up a massive 55 percent from $68 million in 1984.

An immediate result in the Bahamas was increased customs duties.

Dr. Terceira says he has always been struck by the words of a Bahamian ambassador: "It is very glamourous to go independent, but man is it expensive!'' Mr. Rego appears to take a similar tack.

He stresses he is not critical of those who compiled Government's latest Green Paper -- but it is difficult to consider every possible costs.

"I have a great deal of concern about the cost of treaty negotiations. I think it will be very expensive to get the treaty professionals to act on our behalf.'' Mr. Rego believes it could take anywhere between 15 months and two years to renegotiate a treaty. And who would pay for the extra costs? Would it be the individual or the business community? In his last Budget, Finance Minister the Hon. David Saul turned to the business community, Mr. Rego points out.

Mr. Brown, however, is not convinced by the arguments over renegotiating treaties.

And he bridles at the phrase "hidden costs''.

"To speak about hidden costs is to try to confuse the issue and be mischievous.

"We all know how to formulate budgets and identify costs, and for the Chamber to talk about hidden costs is to some extent misleading.

"Treaties are not hidden costs. You can identify them and then put a figure against them.'' Mr. Brown adds: "The fact of the matter is that in the last 25 years whenever the British government has negotiated a treaty of which Bermuda is a signatory Bermuda has had some input in process.

"So none of these treaties are treaties we don't know about. I doubt many of treaties will need to be substantially altered.'' Mr. Brown believes $10 million should be set aside for the initial cost of going independent.

"I doubt whether we will exceed that, and I believe the ongoing costs will be considerably less.'' Mr. Brown says Bermuda should have overseas representation in New York and London, which would probably cost about $200,000 a year.

But there was no doubt Bermuda could absorb such expenses.

"I think it unusual to continually hear that Bermuda is one of the richest countries in the world, and yet we are told we can't afford to go independent.

"Really, costs are an emotional hurdle we need to get over. Cost in reality is not an issue.''