Labour Party in the last three months, according to an independent poll released yesterday.

Forty percent of Bermudians polled would vote for the UBP if an election were held today, compared to 38 percent who said they would vote for the governing party when the same poll was held in June.

And 23 percent of all Bermudians would vote for the PLP, down four percent from the 27 percent who said they supported the Opposition when they were polled by the Bermuda Omnibus Survey three months ago.

The Bermuda Omnibus Survey was conducted between September 28 and September 30 by Total Marketing and Communications Ltd. in association with its affiliate, Corporate Research Associates Inc. A sample of 404 residents were polled, of whom 319 were Bermudian.

The results stand in stark contrast to a poll conducted a week earlier by Research Innovations Ltd. for the Bermuda Sun which said 42 percent of those polled would vote for the PLP and 35 percent said UBP.

In the Bermuda Omnibus Survey, 19 percent of Bermudians refused to say how they planned to vote, compared to 14 percent in June, while 12 percent did not know or were undecided compared to 13 percent in June.

In the Research Innovations poll, conducted by political scientist Walton Brown, 21 percent would not say, compared to 29 percent in August.

Among decided voters, 58 percent would vote for the UBP, compared to 52 percent in June, while 33 percent would vote for the PLP, down from 36 percent in June.

And the Bermuda Omnibus Survey's figures indicate that 48 percent of the population prefer Pamela Gordon as Premier, compared to 24 percent who would prefer to see Jennifer Smith as Premier -- down from 26 percent who approved of Ms Smith in their June survey.

According to Research Innovations, 80 percent of voters had a more favourable opinion of Opposition Leader Jennifer Smith, compared to 65 percent for Ms Gordon.

The Bermuda Omnibus Survey also said a large majority of voters said they were satisfied with Ms Gordon's Government: sixteen percent said they were completely satisfied, 52 percent said they were generally satisfied, 18 percent were generally dissatisfied and eight percent were completely dissatisfied. Those results were broadly similar to the survey's findings in June.

The Omnibus Survey does not release statistics based on race, where the Research Innovations survey showed up wide differences.

According to the Research survey, only 25 percent of blacks polled approved of Ms Gordon's leadership, compared with an August approval rating among blacks of 46 percent.

And Research Innovations' numbers indicated that Ms Smith received approval from 94 percent of blacks and 55 percent of whites.

Mr. Brown said yesterday it was difficult to compare the two polls since the questions were worded differently.

But he said the issue of race -- which his poll released figures on -- produces the most obvious discrepancies in results.

Stark contrasts in poll results Mr. Brown said race was a "very significant political determinant'' for surveying degrees of support within racial groups.

"Everyone knows that race matters, and the assumption made by the two main parties is that race plays a key factor,'' said Mr. Brown.

"Race remains a significant aspect of viewpoint in 1998 because there is a degree of polarisation along racial lines.'' How Bermuda would vote If an election were held today in Bermuda, for which party would you vote?: Percentage of All Bermudians: United Bermuda Party (UBP) 40 (38) Progressive Labour Party (PLP) 23 (27) Other Party 2 (2) None/do not plan to vote 4 (7) Refused to state 19 (14) Don't Know/Undecided 12 (13) Source: Bermuda Omnibus Survey POLITICS PTL