Hon. Sir John Swan as Premier has already begun.

Sir John fired the starting pistol on Monday when he announced he would resign as party leader and Premier unless Bermudians voted `yes' to Independence on August 15.

A poll published in The Royal Gazette last week suggested the referendum would result in a strong `no' vote. Barring a major late shift in public opinion, the United Bermuda Party will be looking for a new leader, and Bermuda a new Premier, on August 16.

Tourism Minister the Hon. C.V. (Jim) Woolridge, who has taken a strong anti-Independence stand, was putting out feelers as early as Monday night and must be seen as a front runner.

While he is not wildly popular in the United Bermuda Party caucus, he is well-liked by Bermudians generally and is seen as a leader who could steer the party through the next general election. A strong "no'' in the referendum would strengthen his hand.

Mr. Woolridge is believed to have the backing of Government backbencher the Hon. Ann Cartwright DeCouto and several other MPs who appeared with him in an advertisement that appeared in yesterday's The Royal Gazette , urging a `no' vote on August 15.

Mr. Woolridge's "baggage'' include Bermuda's struggling tourism industry, his much-publicised "little white boys'' remark, and the animosity that exists between him and Sir John and the Premier's staunch loyalists.

Deputy Premier the Hon. Irving Pearman, who also holds the portfolios of Labour and Home Affairs and Delegated Affairs, has long been tipped as a potential successor to Sir John.

But his stand on the Independence issue, particularly his latest threat to resign, has not helped him as a candidate to unite the fractured party after a `no' vote, sources said.

Mr. Pearman said yesterday that he too would resign from Cabinet in the event of a `no' vote, though he might also resign prior to the referendum. He would not, however, rule out succeeding Sir John as leader. "I don't rule out anything,'' he said.

Earlier this year, Mr. Pearman said he would resign if the Independence Referendum Act was not passed.

"Until, I guess yesterday, I would have said Irving Pearman,'' said one Government MP when asked who was most likely to succeed Sir John. Having heard Mr. Pearman talking on radio about a possible resignation, "now I have no idea''.

Like Mr. Woolridge, Mr. Pearman may have an unexpected advantage in his relatively advanced age. Young leadership contenders in the UBP would see him as a caretaker unlikely to serve for longer than one term.

Possible compromise candidates include Youth and Sport Minister the Hon.

Pamela Gordon, Human Affairs Minister the Hon. Jerome Dill, and Management and Technology Minister the Hon. Grant Gibbons, though there are those in caucus who believe the next leader must be black to give the UBP any chance of continuing in power.

Like Mr. Pearman, Health and Social Services Minister the Hon. Quinton Edness has said he will resign his Cabinet post in the event of a `no' vote, but he will not rule out succeeding Sir John. He can not be counted out.

Former Government Whip Dr. David Dyer, also strongly anti-Independence, also has some support among conservatives in the UBP.

Search is on for possible replacement for Swan Transport Minister the Hon. Maxwell Burgess has said he would resign his Cabinet post in the event of a `no' vote and would not consider succeeding Sir John as leader. He also would "retreat to the back bench for the life of this House,'' he said yesterday.

Party sources said that barring a deadlock, it would be at most a matter of days, not weeks, before a new leader was chosen.

It was expected UBP chairman Sen. Gary Pitman would chair a meeting on August 16 at which any Government MP could nominate and vote on a successor to Sir John.

Voting would be by secret ballot, with the candidate receiving the fewest votes dropped from each successive ballot until only two names remained.

Where the UBP could have some difficulty is in getting to a final name who could command "a substantial majority'' of support from the Parliamentary Group.

Once a candidate was chosen, the Governor's approval would be sought. Under the Constitution, the Governor appoints as Premier the MP "who appears to him best able to command the confidence of a majority of the members of (the) House''.

If a candidate like Mr. Woolridge could not win support from Swan loyalists and one like Mr. Pearman could not get votes from the anti-Independence faction, the UBP would have to look to a compromise candidate.

Going outside the Parliamentary Group was also a possibility, a well-placed source said. But that would be more time-consuming and involve a Government MP in a safe seat stepping aside to allow the successor to enter the House of Assembly through a by-election.

"I hope it wouldn't come to that,'' the source said.