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Staff cuts may affect hurricane forecasts

effect on Bermuda's ability to track hurricanes, but the Island would not be blind, Bermuda Weather Service staff yesterday told The Royal Gazette .

Emergency management officials in American coastal states have recently warned against proposed cutbacks at the US National Weather Service and the NHS, saying cuts could affect the warning time preceding a storm.

Meanwhile Florida Governor Lawton Chiles last week fired off a letter to Commerce Secretary William Daley, saying cuts "will undermine our emergency management system and pose a serious threat to the health and well being of Floridians'' -- a sentiment echoed by EMO officials along the American seaboard.

With hurricane season approaching in June, American EMO teams are worried about their ability to evacuate residents from oncoming storms. Any delay in warning time could prove deadly and costly, said William Croft, Director of Louisiana's Office of Emergency Preparedness.

While getting out of a storm's path is not much of an issue on Bermuda, the cuts have the potential to influence forecasting, said Bermuda Weather Service meteorologist Peter Spyker.

"They're the masters (Miami Hurricane Center) and they're the ones who prepare the bulletins on a hurricane's track, windspeed, and direction,'' said Mr. Spyker.

Both the Bermuda Biological Station for Research and the Weather Service however can tap into the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's main weather satellite and a second Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite, said Bio Station remote sensing specialist Dr. Norm Nelson.

But it's still not that easy to find and track a hurricane, he said. Miami possesses resources Bermuda doesn't have, which gives it the ability to determine variables such as a hurricane's minimal central pressure and windspeed.

"They run a lot of supercomputer models and track estimates; it's all very sophisticated and to lose that would mean a definite loss in accurate forecasting.'' In Miami hurricane specialist Miles Lawrence yesterday told The Royal Gazette the entire National Weather Service -- of which NHC is a part -- is to be hit with cuts, but to date where the cost-cutting storm is expected to strike cannot be forecast.

"We're totally in the dark as to the precise outcome, with a little luck maybe we'll be spared.'' The hurricane center provides 24-hour marine and atmospheric monitoring covering the entire Atlantic and Caribbean, as well as most of the eastern Pacific Ocean.

"It's hard to say how cuts could affect a place like Bermuda,'' said Mr.

Lawrence.

"But the bottom line is if they go through -- as we're hearing they will -- who knows; we may have to discontinue those services some islands rely on.'' Every six hours Miami issues advisories with the location of a storm, its direction, wind speed, changes in pressure, and issues warnings as warranted.

The US weather service is faced with cutting $27.5 million from its $460-million budget, as well as 130 jobs.

Current proposals call for the Hurricane Center to lose seven staff by mid-July.