There are a number of good reasons of which most Bermudians are well aware.

Basically there is major uncertainty over the impact of Independence on Bermuda's economy. Bermudians worry, with real justification, that they will be worse off after Independence than they are now.

But the best reason for not voting for Independence is the dreadful behaviour in recent months of both political parties. The United Bermuda Party and the Progressive Labour Party have both demonstrated a lack of control and an immaturity which would make anyone uncertain about their ability to lead during the uncertain days after Independence.

To go independent any country needs strong and well disciplined leadership.

For a tiny fish to begin to swim amid the sharks in the big ocean that tiny fish needs charisma and street smarts and great intelligence. The tiny fish needs to have itself together. The tiny fish also needs strong support from some friendly sharks and a school of strong followers.

The Independence issue has produced exactly the opposite in Bermuda today.

Both political parties are split over some aspect of Independence.

The United Bermuda Party leadership is split from its general membership and from its partnership with business in Bermuda. Against the wishes of its members, and for mysterious reasons, the leadership moved the UBP toward a decision on Independence. We are constantly told that what is taking place is "the democratic process''. The truth is that the general following of the UBP does not want Independence and it did not even want the referendum which it sees as unnecessary and disruptive. As for the "democratic process'', the general UBP membership sees the whole process as daft rather than democratic.

The "process'' has caused a major split in the UBP's parliamentary group and in the UBP caucus, yet no strong leadership has emerged.

It would be foolish to vote for Independence under a party which needs to get itself back together and functioning sensibly.

The Progressive Labour Party is not sure where it is. It wants Independence but when a referendum on Independence was agreed by Parliament, it decides to take its marbles and go home.

Clearly the leadership of the PLP felt that Independence would fail at a referendum. Instead of working hard to get the public to vote for Independence, the PLP decided to take the easy road and tilt the process by asking its followers not to use their hard won vote.

Clearly the PLP was scared that the number voting for Independence would fewer than the number of PLP supporters at the last election. The defeat of Independence would appear as a defeat for the PLP and the PLP would have to face the fact that supporting Independence was a mistake. So the PLP took the extraordinary step of playing politics with Independence by asking its followers not to exercise their democratic right.

In time, of course, the PLP will try to say the referendum was not significant because the PLP voters did not vote. Wrong. Not voting is a democratic right but if you do not vote you have no say in the result. Those who vote decide the result.

The PLP did not stand up to be counted on Independence before the last election. Now it says it wants Independence but does not want a clean, clear, democratic referendum vote. The PLP keeps telling us that elsewhere a referendum was not used to decide Independence. So? This is Bermuda. In any case, the desire of the people for Independence has been clear in other places and none of them has had so much to lose. The wish of the people is not clear in Bermuda and a valid decision can only be made by a clear and democratic vote. The PLP now opposes open democracy.

What the PLP is really saying is that it does not trust its supporters to vote for Independence. Who would be comfortable with a new Country led by people who behave in such a childish way?