A widespread belief in the local tourism industry is that every four years the Island suffers a sag in visitor arrivals because of the stay-at-home pressures of US presidential elections.

US travel experts and local officials say the national vote ushers in a period of uncertainty that dissuades Americans from taking long-haul or overseas vacations.

Election years, as a result, are generally considered off years for tourism.

But a Bermuda Tourism survey obtained by The Royal Gazette reveals the Island is not affected in any conclusive way by US presidential votes.

"There is no real evidence to support the hypothesis that Americans do not travel in an election year,'' a Ministry report on the issue says.

The survey, which reviewed the five past US elections from 1972, found no definitive pattern to election years.

US air arrivals to Bermuda actually increased in 1972, 1976 and 1980. And while the 1984 and 1988 election years saw arrivals drop, other more significant factors are believed to have been at play.

In 1984, the US "superdollar'' prompted Americans to travel to Europe in greater numbers than ever before to take advantage of exchange rates.

And in 1988, the collapse of Eastern Airlines, with its 100,000 Bermuda seats, knocked the wind out of the tourism industry.

Mr. Paul Zar, Tourism's North American sales director, suggests that Bermuda may in fact be somewhat immune to the vicissitudes of presidential politics.

"I have been in the (travel) industry long enough to know that elections have a generally disruptive influence,'' he said. "They create uncertainty, and when there is uncertainty travel is affected.

"I believe, generally speaking, it is true that during presidential elections people have a tendency to stay closer to home.

"And in this particular year, I do believe that the election is having more of an impact: there's the poor state of the economy, the question of higher taxes, the budget deficit, monetary policy. There is a lot riding on this (vote). And the poor consumer is in the middle of it.'' But Mr. Zar thinks Bermuda's proximity to the US east coast and it's higher-income clientele may exempt it from serious election-time losses.

"Bermuda may be seen as closer to home,'' he said. "We also attract a slightly better educated, more affluent visitors who may be less susceptible to the vicissitudes of US elections.'' Long-time Tourism Board chairman Mr. Kirk Cooper is on the other side of the question, maintaining there is an autumn fall-off in election years.

"It doesn't happen so much in the early part of the year, but when the election heats up there is no doubt about it,'' he said.

However, a look at October/November results does not show any consistent arrival declines at election times.

US arrivals in those two months actually increased in the election years of 1976 and 1980. Declines were recorded in 1972, 1984 and 1988.

"There is no real pattern that can lead one to conclude that you are looking at an election year or not,'' a Ministry official said yesterday.

Tourism director Mr. Gary Phillips, who asked that the survey be carried out to clear up the question, said: "I don't think we can honestly state that we can anticipate a decline in visitor arrivals or blame any decline this year on the US election.''