global warming has already begun, according to some US-based researchers.

But forecasters at Bermuda's US Naval Oceanography Command Facility are sceptical and say if there is global warming, it would melt icebergs which in turn would cool the oceans, making conditions unfavourable for the spawning of hurricanes.

And hurricane expert Dr. William Gray, who predicts how many hurricanes the Atlantic-Caribbean season will see, also disputes the finding.

He rejects even the premise that storms are becoming more frequent and fierce.

Dr. Gray, an atmospheric scientist at Colorado State University, pointed out the number of severe storms to hit the Northern Hemisphere have in fact declined since the 1930s-1950s.

The NOCF has used Dr. Gray's predictions for many years to get a feeling of how Bermuda will be affected during hurricane season.

Former NOCF commanding officer Lt. Cmdr. James Bancroft thought highly of the expert saying his predictions had been "dead on for years''.

In May he predicted a "below average'' hurricane season, although he said there would be more storm activity than in 1991.

He predicted that eight tropical storms would occur in the North Atlantic, Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico between June 1 and November 30.

But he believed only four would develop into hurricanes and only one would pack winds of more than 115 mph (or 100 knots).

Hurricane Emily in 1987, the worst storm to hit Bermuda in recent times, gusted to 115 mph.

If Dr. Gray's predictions prove accurate, just three more hurricanes this season will be a threat to Bermuda.

Andrew, the first hurricane of the season, passed us by more than 400 miles to the southwest.

Leading climatologist Mr. Steve Schneider at the National Centre for Atmospheric Research in Washington DC, said continued emissions of greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide are increasing the likelihood of "anomalies'' in weather or climate conditions.

"I personally think we will prove a causal effect between global warming and natural disasters,'' Mr. Schneider said. "But the only way to find out is to wait 10 to 20 years and continue studying events in this laboratory we call Earth.'' Hurricane Andrew is being billed as one of the worst storms to hit the United States this century. It caused at least $15 billion worth of damage in south Florida.

The current consensus on global warming holds that a doubling of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere will boost the Earth's average temperature by up to eight degrees Fahrenheit.

This in turn would boost the temperature of the Earth's oceans, one factor that is linked to hurricane activity.

"It's like slowly loading the dice. You change the odds over time,'' Mr.

Schneider said.

Other major storms in recent years included Hugo in September, 1989 which packed top winds of 190 mph and Gilbert in 1988 which set a record of the lowest barometric pressure ever seen in the Northern Hemisphere.

But Dr. Gray does not believe higher ocean temperatures would automatically lead to more hurricanes.

He noted global warming, if it happens, could also change wind currents and other factors that affect hurricane creation and activity, making storms less intense and less frequent.