to defeat.

The axing of the Hon. Sir John Swan's nominee for Speaker when the House of Assembly convened in November demonstrated the slimness of the United Bermuda Party majority and the profound effect a little caucus unhappiness can have.

One Cabinet Minister has already resigned over Sir John's plan for a Commission of Inquiry and referendum on Independence, and other Cabinet and caucus members are known to be unhappy.

Both the Commission and referendum would require approval of Parliament.

Pending further debate at a UBP caucus meeting tomorrow, referendum legislation could be tabled when the House resumes on February 4.

The Premier has delayed his departure for the World Economic Forum in Switzerland and tentatively plans to attend tomorrow's caucus.

He said there were other matters he needed to attend to and the changed schedule was not related to the Independence issue.

But with a 21-18 UBP majority and the Progressive Labour Party insisting that Independence be decided not by referendum but in a general election, the Government faces potential disaster.

If Mrs. Cartwright DeCouto and one or two of her colleagues either stayed away from the House or voted against the Commission or referendum, the Premier could be forced to ask Governor Lord Waddington to dissolve Parliament.

"It would be a major policy defeat,'' former House Clerk Mr. John Gilbert told The Royal Gazette . "It would be a vote of no confidence in the Government.

"It would then be a straightforward matter of a general election, which could easily be won by the Opposition.'' Having let the Independence genie out of the bottle just after the United Kingdom Government announced plans to close the Royal Navy's HMS Malabar, it is difficult to see how the Premier can retreat. But caucus sources are already talking of a possible compromise that would see Mrs. Ann Cartwright DeCouto return to Delegated Affairs and the Government camp.

Sir John has long favoured Independence personally. In 1983, he told a Bermuda Day gathering that he had "a vision.'' "I look forward to the day when we will be responsible for our own destiny, and I will encourage every Bermudian to make a decision about their destiny,'' he said.

The Premier has been consistent in insisting he would only seek Independence if the majority of Bermudians favoured it. But each time he has suggested a referendum, he has faced a UBP rebellion and "secret agenda'' allegations.

In 1986, Sir John withdrew support for then Sen. Hugh Richardson's referendum bill after a backbench rebellion which Mr. Ralph Marshall, who represented Southampton West, helped to organise.

The party remained split on Independence throughout 1987. Then out of Cabinet, the Hon. C.V. (Jim) Woolridge was the most vocal UBP supporter of the status quo.

Now Tourism Minister, Mr. Woolridge remains a potential roadblock to Sir John's plans for an Independence vote.

In December of 1987, the Premier gave notice of motion in the House that Government wanted to discuss with the UK, the United States, and Canada "those matters which, under the Constitution, are presently reserved for the Government of the United Kingdom.'' He won a mandate to press ahead with plans to find out more about Independence.

In May of 1988, the UK said Bermuda could stay or go, but there would be no "halfway house,'' when it came to Independence.

Days later, Sir John gave a historic speech to the Hamilton Rotary Club in which he said the UK acted in its own interests, not Bermuda's. He announced he would visit London the following month to discuss the Island's future.

That speech sparked virulent attacks from inside and outside the UBP. In June, Sir John said he would follow the UBP's lead on Independence. "But personally, I think it's appropriate to concentrate on domestic issues,'' he said.