PLP sources: Ewart Brown is vulnerable
Premier Brown's growing unpopularity within PLP ranks could spark a leadership contest in October — or even sooner — senior party insiders have revealed.
There is anger over the sums spent on travel, the Premier's personal body guards and Dr. Brown's habit of running Cabinet by directive rather than consensus.
One senior party source said: "I don't think the recent conduct in Parliament helped the Premier."
Recently Dr. Brown cut short a debate in anger at Opposition claims of corruption.
And there was further controversy when Cabinet Office put out an unauthorised press release from Speaker Stanley Lowe who then retracted it and complained it risked undermining the integrity of his office.
Some PLP MPs are annoyed that the first they know about major initiatives is when they are announced at press conferences.
And two highly-placed sources said there were growing grumblings in Cabinet about at least one minister pushing ahead with projects the majority had voted against.
One key party figure said the clamour for leadership change was growing among PLP members and supporters as well as the wider public.
Deputy Premier Paula Cox has been touted as the possible successor but it's thought she will not push herself forward but could be persuaded that running for leader was in the best interests of the party and Country.
The source said: "The party's problems are based around the leader.
"People are saying 'I don't recognise the PLP now, this is not the PLP we believe in' and they track it right back to the current leader.
"They talk in terms of the conference coming up and hope that the party will do something and they do ask what is Minister Cox going to do?
"They wonder why the Finance Minister isn't putting her foot down on some of the requests being made by the Premier.
"I think that what should probably concern the Premier most is that some of this comes from people who were his supporters — people who backed him over Alex Scott, they are saying 'we didn't sign on for this'."
PLP leaders are selected by delegates with the next mandated contest not due until 2010 under rules stipulating they happen every four years.
But the source said there could still be a leadership fight this year. "It can be accomplished if you know the PLP constitution — all you need a significant representation from constituencies and it can be done — the delegates conference is supreme."
But the question mark is whether the branches would have the nerve to push for change — particularly as the party has had three leaders in five years.
"I would guess it would take someone to drive it — Minister Cox would not initiate it."
The insider said Ms Cox was not likely to plot or encourage a plot.
"But I can see events may overtake her but she would not be behind anything."
The source said Ms Cox was the only serious contender to remove Dr. Brown.
"She has the political capital, both within and without, for it to be achieved just by votes. There would be no doubt. If they were ever before the party — just the two of them — she would win hands down."
Another long-standing PLP figure, who again spoke on conditions of anonymity, said: "There's unhappiness about arbitrary individualistic behaviour which seems to be migrating to other ministers who are taking their lead from that. It is causing rifts."
The Royal Gazette understands two recent Government initiatives were voted down by Cabinet but then later unveiled at press conferences, something which caused ructions within Cabinet.
Asked if a leadership fight was likely at the delegates conference, the source said: "Some people are unhappy it could take that long but I think that is probably the optimum time to make a change.
"Paula is the linchpin. She will be ready sometime, I won't say soon, she cannot allow her father's name to be tarnished, she's a very proud person. She really, really loves her father and his image and won't want his legacy to be tarnished."
The source said the mood in the party ranks was more forgiving for Dr. Brown's leadership style but there was anger among the conservative wing about his visit to the Playboy mansion in Los Angeles.
"We have a lot of Christians who, underneath know what's right — they don't like that type of thing. It's cheap and tawdry."
But the insider said it was likely nothing much would happen until the October conference.
"People are already gearing up for Cup Match, they are very event-oriented.
"It sounds trite but they will get past Cup Match and the Music Festival, then they will get down to business at the Delegates Conference when they are thinking seriously."
He said time was running out for Dr. Brown who will have his work cut out to stave off a challenge now his honeymoon period was over.
"Everyone gets a free year — you would have to start world war three before anyone would criticise you. You get a lot of latitude with the PLP.
"It would be nice to have a nice transition to Paula but that's too much to expect."
However, the source conceded Dr. Brown might bow out rather than face a humiliating exit.
Probed on why opponents in the party weren't more vocal, the source said: "It isn't so much fear of the individual or any particular person, you have got to realise there is a whole lot of political pride and faith that goes into supporting a party leader."
The source indicated there was a lot face-saving for those who had advocated for Dr. Brown only to regret making their choice. "It isn't taken lightly, these shifts and changes don't come quickly."
However, just weeks before the December election, Dr. Brown warned colleagues to pull together and save any leadership challenges until after the election.
He told colleagues: "There will be plenty of time for you to attempt leadership changes AFTER the victory, but let's get the victory first!"
Retiring PLP MP Renee Webb and former PLP Trevor Woolridge had called his leadership a liability which led former Premier Alex Scott to tell voters that a close vote could lead to Dr. Brown being dumped.
But he led the party to a convincing victory.
PLP chairman David Burt would not comment about the renewed leadership speculation yesterday.
However, Health Minister Nelson Bascome said he doubted Dr. Brown would be challenged in October.
He said: "I haven't heard any rumblings or anything from anyone. We are progressing and getting the job done and working on those things we promised in the election."
Asked what had happened to election promises such as free bus and ferry rides, interest-free down payment home loans and free child care, Mr. Bascome said: "Each minister is tasked to get stuff done. My one is FutureCare. As a matter of fact we have just finished the tendering process."
He said the plan to give seniors health coverage should be in place by the target date of April 2009.