Term limits rethink
Government appears ready to reconsider its controversial work permit term limits policy as the public's confidence in Bermuda's economy has taken a dramatic plunge, according to Chamber of Commerce boss Philip Barnett.
The Island's Consumer Confidence Index is now at 74.5 — down from 102.8 less than a year ago and marking its lowest point on record except during the immediate aftermath of September 11, 2001.
Yesterday, Mr. Barnett said he was optimistic Ministers were now listening to concerns over legislation described as making the international business community feel unwelcome as Bermuda aims to avoid becoming a victim of the global economic downturn.
And he is hopeful the law axing most expatriate workers after six years can be thrown out because, he says, it hurts local and international business.
Mr. Barnett indicated he had faith in Immigration Minister David Burch — with whom he publicly clashed over the issue four months ago — Premier Ewart Brown and Finance Minister Paula Cox in accepting business people's concerns.
He told The Royal Gazette now was a scary time for the economy, and that Government was aware of the dangers of upsetting the international business community.
"Most business people say the issue of term limits is still a great concern to them," said Mr. Barnett. "All the various surveys show that. I do think the message is getting through to Government. They do appreciate that policies set up for all the best reasons may not be the best going forward.
"The Bermuda market place is saying we need to look at this again if we truly want to ensure that Bermudians have an opportunity in the future. This is something we need to look at to ensure the climate of business in Bermuda is safe in five years time."
In May, Sen. Burch said Mr. Barnett had damaged a good working relationship by claiming Government had reneged on a promise to consider exemptions for employees at all levels of the career ladder. At the time, Sen. Burch said the threat of businesses leaving due to term limits "didn't add up" because they were making record profits.
Asked yesterday if he believed Government would now take on board his concerns, Mr. Barnett declared himself an eternal optimist.
He continued: "I have tremendous faith in Minister Burch, that he's an astute man. He and I may have butted heads in the past, but I truly have faith that he will look at all the issues and listen to all opinions and make what is the right decision for Bermuda as a whole."
Referring to Sen. Burch, the Premier and Ms Cox, he added: "I do believe that they will be listening. What's important is that we as a country have to support them when they may need to make a decision.
"There would need to be a very careful look at the whole issue, ensuring that international business does feel confident and comfortable in the future."
Responding to the Consumer Confidence Index score last night, Ms Cox said: "You may be aware that on August 28, 2008, the US Commerce Department's Bureau of Economic Analysis revised its assessment of US GDP growth in the second quarter of this year. They noted that economic growth rather than growing at the anaemic pace of 1.9 per cent as reported in January the April-June growth actually registered a healthy GDP growth rate of 3.3 per cent.
"This is said to have exceeded the long-term US growth rate of 3.1 per cent over the past 50 years in the US.
"I think current economic figures including the labour indicators are sobering and the full effect of the fallout from the sub-prime and housing crisis has yet to be fully estimated.
"With market uncertainty globally and the oil price volatility even though there has been a marked reduction over the last month or so in oil prices, people feel unsettled.
"In Bermuda, we have a sophisticated economy and it would have been more concerning to me if consumer confidence was buoyant as it would suggest that people were not taking note of the challenging economic times. In that regard, a rate of 75 is within a realistic range at this juncture."
Sen. Burch and the Premier, through their press officers, did not respond to questions from this newspaper yesterday.
Bermuda's Consumer Confidence Index is a measure of the public's outlook on economic conditions for the country and their own household.
It is calculated by Bermuda Omnibus and is based on a benchmark of 100 set when it was launched in 1998.
Figures released via Total Research Associates show that apart from when it fell to 70.6 shortly after the Twin Towers terrorist attack, the Index has remained steadily in the 80s and 90s, peaking at 102.8 in the third quarter of 2007.
It fell to 88 at the beginning of this year, diving a further 13.5 points in the second quarter. Total Research says the score is reflective of the Island's soaring inflation rate, and is generally consistent with declining consumer confidence levels in the US and Canada.
Meanwhile, Impact Media Research has carried out a separate study for The Royal Gazette into the standard of living in Bermuda over the past 12 months.
Young people reported an improvement during that time, while seniors said the opposite. Twenty per cent of those aged between 18 and 30 pointed to an improvement and nine per cent a decline; six per cent of those over 65 had an improvement but things got worse for 20 per cent.
Overall, 63 per cent of residents said their standard of living had not changed, 17 per cent reported a decline and 16 per cent an improvement.
The Impact Media Research telephone survey involved a sample of 400 Bermuda residents aged 18 and over and has a five per cent margin of error.