Southampton West Central voters will pick a new MP today and their choice could help mould the future of Bermuda politics.

While the seat was held by the UBP's Jon Brunson in last year's general election with a comfortable 142-vote majority, a reduced turn-out and the intervention of a third party candidate could make it a close result.

Mr. Brunson resigned because of work commitments and now the seat is being fought by UBP candidate Charlie Swan, PLP candidate Marc Bean and independent candidate Raymond Davis.

Mr. Swan has had to endure former leader Wayne Furbert publicly decrying his candidacy and lamenting the party had not picked someone who could be a future leader.

Since the election, the UBP has been stuck in internal debates between those wanting radical reform and those wanting to stick with the present formula.

Last night one UBP MP said the by-election had become a referendum on the future of the United Bermuda Party.

He said: "I think if we lost then the writing would be on the wall in terms of what the party needs to do. Really it is a referendum on whether we are viable or not, whether we try to reform from within.

"If Charlie loses then clearly we seriously have to consider something new."

However the MP believes Mr. Swan will win with a reduced majority. He said: "By-elections are always closer, I think a third party candidate hurts us more than the PLP. Our recent problems won't help Charlie but I think he will win."

Mr. Swan, who sat in the Senate recently is on home turf, as is independent challenger Raymond Davis who could shave off enough votes from Mr. Swan to put PLP challenger Marc Bean into Parliament.

One observer said Mr. Bean, a Government consultant who also resigned from the Senate to fight the election, has been bolstered by PLP MP Zane DeSilva who is a strong doorstep performer and took neighbouring Southampton East Central off the UBP's David Dodwell at the last election.

However a poor performance by the PLP could reflect badly on Premier Ewart Brown who has suffered dismal poll ratings in recent months.

Former United Bermuda Party senator and election campaign manager Mike Winfield, who is now politically independent, said: "It is an important by-election in a district which has traditionally been UBP.

"Hopefully people will begin not to vote for historical reasons but for the candidate who is going to give them what they want and what the country needs.

"Hopefully that is what we will see. I think the fact that there is a spoiler in the race, someone not from one of the traditional gangs is interesting. It is more likely to dilute the UBP vote than the PLP vote."

However he stopped short of predicting who would win.

Polling will be between 8 a.m. and 8 p.m. at the Mount Zion AME Church.

Voters must ensure they have correct identification. This could be a passport, a voter's ID card, a special persons card issued by the TCD, a valid driver's licence or an employee identification card with a photo, signature, date of birth and address.

Former Independent MP Stuart Hayward said he couldn't predict the result but a win for Mr. Davis would be the "dawning of a new day".

He added: "I don't think there are any particular stand-outs among the candidates.

"I am inclined to think the parties will dominate and as a result we will not have much of a change from what we have now."