The Progressive Labour Party has more than doubled its lead over the United Bermuda Party — with less than half of whites now supporting the official Opposition.

Forty percent of people said they would vote PLP in a new poll by Research.bm, compared to 21 percent for the UBP, 16 percent for the Bermuda Democratic Alliance and 23 percent undecided.

In the previous survey last October — before the BDA was founded — the PLP had 36 percent against the UBP's 28 percent, meaning its margin of lead has now jumped from eight percentage points to 19.

And according to this month's poll, some of the UBP's backing from whites appears to have transferred to the BDA — leaving the PLP, with its overwhelming support from blacks, comfortably clear.

Among whites, the UBP support has fallen from 62 percent to 45 percent; the BDA claims 29 percent of whites; with the PLP one percent and 25 percent undecided.

Among blacks, the PLP claims 68 percent, the UBP six percent and the BDA seven percent, with 17 percent unsure.

The UBP's overall score of 21 percent is its lowest rating since January 2007, during the final days of Wayne Furbert's stint as leader, when the high-profile resignations of Jamahl Simmons and Gwyneth Rawlins saw the figure drop to 19 percent.

Throughout the past year or so, the UBP has maintained a rating from the high 20s to mid-30s despite the loss of five MPs citing frustration at its failure to reform. But that score has tumbled since the emergence of the BDA.

Earlier this week, Opposition leader Kim Swan referred to 2009 as a year of "tragedies" for the UBP, which endured public infighting, the resignations of MPs Darius Tucker, Shawn Crockwell, Donte Hunt and Mark Pettingill and numerous branch members, a failed leadership challenge and a humiliatingly defeated motion of no confidence in Premier Ewart Brown.

Since its formation last November, many have predicted the BDA will merely collect voters who used to back the UBP — leaving the PLP to clean up.

A breakdown of the BDA's support shows the party is particularly popular with the younger generation, many of whom have said they are tired of the back-and-forth arguing between the two traditional parties.

Among the 18-24 age bracket, the BDA's rating rises to 21 percent, and among people aged 25-34 it goes up to 25 percent. The rating drops to seven percent among the over-65s, who retain loyalties with the PLP and UBP.

The UBP remains popular with the elderly, claiming 36 percent of over-65s compared to the PLP's 28 percent. The PLP enjoys its best favourability among the 25-34 age range, with a score of 52 percent.

The PLP has previously been fiercely critical of Research.bm's surveys, particularly when Premier Ewart Brown's rating plummeted and voters said they liked the idea of a third party.

Reacting to today's poll results, chairman Anthony Santucci said: "Not withstanding our view that those polls often have deficiencies, I believe that we have done more than retain — we have increased our lead and continue to show that we are the party of choice for many."

Mr. Santucci's statement centred on the need to address challenging times, saying: "We are focused on the maintenance of law and order and providing a safety net to protection our people — residents and businesses alike."

UBP chairman Jeff Sousa said: "We appreciate the value of polls, particularly the most important one: the next General Election. As a party, we know we have a lot of work to do to win the trust of a majority of voters. We don't need polls to remind us of that tall order."

Mr. Sousa said the UBP was focused on putting forward solutions for the logjam in education reform, surge in crime and weakening economy, because Bermuda "is not progressing under this Government".

Michael Fahy, of the BDA, said: "The Alliance is extremely satisfied with the poll results and what we have managed to achieve as a political party from the date of our official launch to the dates the polls were conducted.

"In less than two months, without an elected political leader and just one released platform, Bermudians see the Alliance as a viable political alternative to the status quo. We are confident that as we develop and release further platforms and elect an Alliance leader, the electorate will become increasingly confident in the Alliance's ability to serve the Country."

The telephone poll of 432 residents took place from January 6 to January 9 and has a 4.9 percent margin of error.