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PLP says poll backs its claims of UBP failings

Premier Ewart Brown

The Progressive Labour Party yesterday highlighted the United Bermuda Party's failings in an opinion poll — but in the same press release attacked the credibility of the same poll.

The statement began by pointing to Research.bm's survey which showed just four percent of people approved of the UBP's performance since last December's General Election.

"If there's one thing that all Bermudians agree on, it's that the UBP is a failed party," stated party PLP chairman David Burt.

However, the rest of the statement contained a series of comments to undermine Research.bm, whose telephone survey of 400 people also found that Premier Ewart Brown was continuing to struggle in the popularity stakes.

According to the survey, the Premier's performance approval rating has fallen from 22 percent to 18 percent, while his favourability climbed from 30 percent to 32 percent.

The PLP statement dismissed Research.bm's methods for calculating Dr. Brown's approval rating, with Senator Walton Brown stating: "Research.bm does not use internationally recognised standards for measuring approval rating.

"They ask for participants to provide approval based on a 1-7 scale where 1 is the highest level of disapproval and 7 is the highest level of approval. By international standards, 5, 6 and 7 is deemed positive, 1, 2 and 3 is negative and 4 is neutral. For some unexplained reason, they do not add the score at 5 as positive."

Using Sen. Brown's favoured method, the Premier's performance approval rating would rise to 41 percent.

But by the same logic, the UBP approval rating would increase from four percent to 18 percent.

Research.bm shows the PLP's performance approval rating is at 17 percent, but using Sen. Brown's method it would go up to 40 percent.

Responding to Sen. Brown's suggestion, Leslie Steede of Research.bm said: "Research.bm is a leader in its field and prides itself on following international best practices.

"1-7 scales where you combine the bottom 2 and top 2 numbers to obtain a positive approval rating as well as a negative approval rating are used by leading research firms in both the US and Canada. In fact with upcoming elections in both of these countries all you have to do is pick up a newspaper and you will see this research approach being used almost daily."

The PLP statement also contained this comment from Mr. Burt: "Research.bm was the only pollster in Bermuda to produce a poll that had the UBP defeating the PLP prior to last year's election. That speaks volumes to both their accuracy and credibility."

Responding, Mr. Steede said: "Research.bm or any other research firm cannot predict the result of an election using a national poll, as stated by David Burt. The only statistically valid way to predict an election in Bermuda is to conduct a poll of all 36 constituencies weighted to the specific demographics of each constituency."

The PLP statement complained about a "false comparison of job approval ratings to favourability numbers" because yesterday's lead article in The Royal Gazette mentioned Dr. Brown's performance approval rating followed by a reference to Deputy Premier Paula Cox's favourabilty and that of UBP leader Kim Swan and his deputy Cole Simons.

However, yesterday's Royal Gazette ran a second article directly comparing the favourability ratings of all four political leaders, pointing out that Ms Cox's stood at 75 percent; Dr. Brown 32 percent; Mr. Swan 30 percent; and Mr. Simons nine percent.

Yesterday's third article in this newspaper focused on the UBP's four percent approval rating and carried the headline: "Opposition UBP makes a dismal showing."

The PLP responded to this by stating in its press release: "Overlooked: 4% of Bermudians Approve of the UBP."

The PLP statement also contained this comment from the Premier "We don't work for The Royal Gazette or pollsters. We work for the people of Bermuda who can see through the offensive that the daily engages in every October when Tourism produces landmark accomplishments such as the increasingly spectacular Bermuda Music Festival, the Gold Cup and, for the second year in a row, the PGA Grand Slam of Golf."

The Premier himself and the Department of Statistics have prompted articles in The Royal Gazette this month by distributing figures about falling arrivals, including one release showing how air arrivals in the second quarter were the lowest they have been since 1980.

This newspaper also reported last week how Mr. Swan was calling for the Premier to resign as Tourism Minister.

Mr. Steede concluded: "Rather than taking a defensive approach, it would be best if both parties looked at the results of this poll which show that confidence in any political candidate is low with the exception of Paula Cox. It would also be advisable if both parties listened to the people of this country who are stating a lack of confidence in both political parties."