Experts point to an early November or December election
There are just 142 days before parliament must be dissolved as per the Constitution — five years to the day since Parliament was reconvened after the last general election.But should the Premier wait until February 1, 2013 to name the date the Country goes to the polls to elect a new parliament that would delay the Budget — normally held in February.An election must be held within three months after the dissolution of parliament. That means the latest possible date to hold the election is May 1, 2013.Few were willing to speculate publicly about the best time for Ms Cox to call the election.But the handful of people contacted by The Royal Gazette — supporters and candidates of all political stripes — generally agreed that there are only two realistic windows left open to the Premier — early November or December.An early November election has the advantage of allowing the Progressive Labour Party to play on the nostalgia of its first general election win in 1998, as well as an expected win for Barack Obama in the United States, it is said.That strategy would mean the Premier would have to call the election within the next week or two.But Ms Cox would avoid criticism of disenfranchising overseas students if she announced the date shortly after parliament is reconvened on November 3.“That would put it in early December when the children are home for Christmas,” said independent candidate Erwin Adderley.“The Throne Speech would be an opportunity to lay out her plans.”But a pre-Christmas election has the disadvantage of reminding voters of the state of the economy as many struggle to meet the financial demands of the season.One Bermuda Alliance MP Shawn Crockwell noted that the PLP had long supported the idea that everyone should be able to vote including overseas students.He suspects that the Premier might be planning to let parliament dissolve automatically.Bermudians wouldn’t want an election during the festive season, Mr Crockwell said. “We want to enjoy the season without a negative campaign.”And, by his calculations, the Premier would have to let parliament dissolve automatically on February 1, in order to have an Easter election which would be the next opportunity for students abroad to come home.According to the Parliamentary Registrar, Randy Scott, an election can be organised in 33 days after it has been called by the Premier.That 33 days should be enough time for the Governor to issue the writ and notice to be given in two successive issues of the Official Gazette, as well as for nomination day, which must take place at least 14 days before polling day.The 2003 and 2007 elections took place about 40 days after they were called by then Premiers Dame Jennifer Smith and Dr Ewart Brown respectively.The fact that the election has not yet been called “reflects disorganisation” on the part of the ruling party, Mr Crockwell said, adding that the Premier had the ideal opportunity to call the election when the One Bermuda Alliance was getting organised.“It’s clear that she knows that there’s a great deal of dissatisfaction within the community about the performance of the Government and about her own performance on the economy,” he added.“To go into another budget period puts the country in a tenuous position. We may have to go to the country without a budget and that is not good leadership. It creates uncertainty and what we need right now is certainty going forward.”And Mr Crockwell argued that the situation gives weight to his party’s call for fixed term parliaments.“The country and the people need to know. Businesses need to know when the election is going to come.“But to have this state of uncertainty and for the country to be held hostage to the caprice of one person cannot be in everyone’s best interest.”Sir John Swan, Bermuda’s longest serving Premier, was reluctant to speculate on the Premier’s strategy.“She’s got time. She can pick anytime she wants. That’s the prerogative of the Premier,” said Sir John Swan.“She probably has her reasons why she’s not calling it. And they might not be obvious to some people but they are obvious to her.“I guess the public as a whole and the business community would like to see it behind them but they also recognise it’s not their prerogative.”A source within the PLP said that a draft of the party’s election platform has already been produced.