When we have great changes in society, it takes quite a long time to understand those changes and adapt to them. In academic terms this is called 'culture lag'. There is also a time lag between the onset of a disaster and the time it takes to react to it. I am going to call this 'disaster lag' and compare natural and man-made disasters to our ageing population.

Take, for instance, hurricane Katrina. The Bush administration will forever be stained by the time it took to provide the most basic assistance to the people of New Orleans. The Bush administration was paralysed, whether by indifference, incompetence or in-fighting, and the resulting disaster lag had deadly results.

We are now looking at an environmental disaster of monumental proportions — the BP oil rig collapse in the Gulf of Mexico. The Obama administration initially placed all blame and responsibility for stopping the flow of oil and subsequent clean-up on BP.

Now, a month after the collapse, they are taking over control but not before an immeasurable environmental and economic disaster has taken place, with potential impact on Bermuda via the Gulf Stream. The time it is taking us to react to and prepare for our ageing population also has the potential to turn into a disaster for several key reasons.

We have a demographic shift, we have an economic downturn, and we have an exponential rise in all forms of dementia with a matching demand for long-term care.

Census 2000 showed that the population of those aged 65 and older would grow from 11 percent of our population to 22 percent of our population by 2030. Since that time, we have had a global economic downturn that is still ongoing, with Europe's economic woes reverberating in stock markets around the world. In Bermuda, two legs of our three-legged economy — tourism and construction — are struggling, resulting in real hardship and stress as families try to stay afloat financially.

To add to this toxic mix, I have three research reports on my desk. One is from Canada, one is from the UK, and one is from the USA. All three reports point to an exponential growth in the rate of Alzheimer's disease and other forms of dementia. Not only are the numbers increasing as more people live longer, but dementias are appearing in younger and younger persons.

The Canadian report, called "The Rising Tide: the Impact of Dementia on Canadian Society", shows that within a generation, the number of dementia cases will more than double, from 500,000 to 1.1 million. Cost of overall care will grow from $15 billion to $153 billion, crushing their health-care system. By 2038, an estimated 2.8 percent of their population will have some form of dementia and the demand for long-term care will increase tenfold.

The U.K. report, called "Dementia 2010", was conducted by the Health Economic Research Centre of the University of Oxford for the Alzheimer's Research Trust.

I quote: "Dementia costs the United Kingdom twice as much as cancer, three times as much as heart disease, four times as much as stroke … For every pound spent on dementia research, twenty-six pounds are spend on cancer research and fifteen pounds into heart disease".

In the USA, their report called "Alzheimer's Disease: Facts and Figures" shows that 5.3 million Americans currently have Alzheimer's disease; it is the seventh leading cause of death; it costs $172 billion annually in care; and 10.9 million unpaid family caregivers are providing care.

At the conference on ageing I attended in Chicago in March, Dr. Ken Dychtwald stated categorically, "Alzheimer's disease will be the sinkhole into which America falls".

We don't know what causes Alzheimer's disease although we can probably point the finger at a lifetime of exposure to toxins found in everyday items such as plastics. We do know that very little money is being spent on research to find either the cause or a cure.

We also know it is time for the jokes about "Alzheimer's" to stop. It is not funny. We don't joke about heart disease, stroke, cancer or diabetes. There is nothing amusing about Alzheimer's disease or other forms of dementia.

It is a cruel disease that robs the individual of their mental faculties but not before robbing them of their personality. For the family, it is the long goodbye — one fraught with grief, exhaustion, and financial hardship. We have a social and economic disaster taking place in our midst. How long will our disaster lag be?

Marian Sherratt is President of SORCOS, a social research and consulting firm. She writes on issues concerning our ageing population each month in The Royal Gazette. Send email responses to m.sherratt@sorcos.com">m.sherratt@sorcos.com.