Brett Forgesson isn't making any bold predictions about this year's Marathon Derby, but as he gazes into his crystal ball he sees Kavin Smith as the best bet to become Wednesday's winner.

Forgesson enters the Island's pre-eminent road race as defending champion, but he is acutely aware of the fact that only three participants in the men's field have managed to win back-to-back races during the past two decades.

Former record holder Tony Ryan (1988-89) was the last runner to achieve this remarkable feat while Cal Bean (1975-76-77) and Mike Watson (1984-85) were the others able to stitch together consecutive triumphs.

If Forgesson manages to be the first person to cross the line at Bernard Park this week, he'll be the first repeat winner of the '90s.

"I think it's very difficult,'' said Forgesson in an interview yesterday, when asked about the possibility of winning two straight races. "The competition is always stiff because there's always three or four people every year who have a good chance of winning. You really have to have a good day to do that.'' The 31-year-old Pembroke resident had "a good day'' last year, overcoming a ferocious struggle with Kevin Tucker to win the gruelling 13.3 mile race in one hour, 15 minutes and nine seconds.

For Forgesson it was his first victory after just four attempts in the Derby.

With Smith in this year's line-up the focus will be rivetted on two of Bermuda's best road runners.

"(Kavin's) only been back for two or three months but he obviously hasn't lost much in the way of fitness,'' said Forgesson. "And he's proved before that he has the stamina over the longer distances as well as the speed over the shorter distances. So if he runs anywhere near form he's going to be extremely difficult to beat.'' Forgesson admitted that his own "form hasn't been the same as it was last year and leading up to this race.'' Last year the lanky New Zealander was running between 80 and 90 miles each week while training. This year he's cut that down to a weekly average of 60 miles, with some of his more enjoyable training jogs coming while he pushes baby daughter Rebecca in her carriage.

Forgesson was training more intensely last year because of the Commonwealth Games, but with no major events like that on his road running calendar in '95 he's been able to relax a little bit more.

"I was doing pretty heavy mileage to prepare for the Games in August so that obviously paid off in the other races that were shorter distances,'' said Forgesson.

Commentators are bound to get extra mileage from his ballyhooed showdown with Smith on Wednesday.

Smith holds a decisive 4-0 margin in head-to-head battles between the two runners since the outset of the year.

Smith has been unstoppable since his celebrated comeback in January -- finishing first in five races (he was top local in the Tropicana/Wheels 10K won by Englishman Paul Freary). In direct battles against Forgesson two of Smith's triumphs have been by healthy margins, one by over a minute.

"I think the ball's really in his court as to how he wants to run the race, whether he'll go out fast and go for the record or just hold back,'' said Forgesson, who doesn't mind the fact that Smith is being touted as the pre-race favourite.

Smith -- concentrating on building his new home in Somerset -- was a no-show last year after having set the new record of 1:11.27 in 1993.

"I find that it's a lot easier because last year I was going in as the favourite,'' said Forgesson. "It's always harder when people expect you to win and I think Kavin is probably feeling the pressure more because people are thinking really he should win.

"To me that's a much tougher feeling because you're in a no-win situation. If you don't win people say `what happened to you?'. So you're standing on the start line thinking you've got to beat all these people or people are going to be disappointed in you.

"And I think going in as the favourite in a race like this is much tougher than going in as somebody with an outside chance.'' Forgesson is regarded as someone with having a little more than an outside shot at the top prize, and he's had three first place finishes since January, winning the Butterfield and Vallis 5K, Round the Town and MRM Five Flat Miles.

He was the second local runner to cross the finish line in the half marathon during International Race Weekend, clocking a strong 1:13.41, but behind Tracy Wright, who will also be in the spotlight this week.

"I'll go out there with my own game plan like I do in every race and just stick to that,'' said Forgesson matter-of-factly. "There's very little you can do about what somebody else is doing. If Kavin takes off and keeps going, then well and good to him because there's nothing that anyone can do about it.'' Forgesson's best Derby time came in 1991 when he finished in 1:13.30. The two other times he was a participant he was clocked 1:14.10 in 1993 and 1:16 in 1990.

"I certainly don't think about the time in that race,'' he said about his result in 1991. "It all depends on the conditions I think. The year I got my best time it just happened to be a very nice day with low humidity and a bit of a cooling breeze and that makes all the difference. Whereas last year was hot and humid.'' (A local weather forecaster said there would be light winds and humid conditions with temperatures in the upper 70s on Wednesday).

Forgesson, meantime, will spend the next two days training lightly.

"There's nothing you can do about your training now,'' he said.

WINNERS AT A GLANCE MEN'S DIVISION Since 1971 1971 -- Cal Bean 1:21.17 1972 -- Calvin Hansey 1:19.30 1973 -- Mike Woods 1:26.35 1974 -- Calvin Hansey 1:15.12 1975 -- Cal Bean 1:17.32 1976 -- Cal Bean 1:22.00 1977 -- Cal Bean 1:17.52 1978 -- Ray Swan 1:14.26 1979 -- K.Kupferschmidt 1:13.44 1980 -- Jeff Payne 1:12.40 1981 -- Ray Swan 1:12.52 1982 -- Cal Bean 1:14.48 1983 -- Kevin Pearson 1:12.22 1984 -- Mike Watson 1:12.58 1985 -- Mike Watson 1:14.05 1986 -- Tony Ryan 1:12.00 1987 -- Mike Watson 1:09.58 1988 -- Tony Ryan 1:11.49 1989 -- Tony Ryan 1:13.50 1990 -- Tracy Wright 1:13.12 1991 -- Mike Watson 1:12.56 1992 -- Errol Cormack 1:14.24 1993 -- Kavin Smith 1:11.27 1994 -- Brett Forgesson 1:15.09 WOMEN'S DIVISION Since 1976 1976 -- Merernette Bean 2:09.10 1977 -- Debbie Butterfield na 1978 -- Debbie Butterfield 1:28.11 1979 -- Debbie Butterfield 1:29.16 1980 -- Debbie Butterfield 1:29.18 1981 -- Merernette Bean 1:27.29 1982 -- Debbie Butterfield 1:24.13 1983 -- Jane Christie 1:26.40 1984 -- Sandra Mewett 1:22.41 1985 -- Sandra Mewett 1:21.42 1986 -- Debbie Butterfield 1:21.18 1987 -- Debbie Butterfield 1:23.01 1988 -- Sandra Mewett 1:21.12 1989 -- Sandra Mewett 1:19.56 1990 -- Sandra Mewett 1:20.58 1991 -- Sandra Mewett 1:21.08 1992 -- Sandra Mewett 1:23.27 1993 -- Anna Eatherley 1:21.58 1994 -- Sandra Mewett 1:30.16 DERBY SHOWDOWN -- Defending champion Brett Forgesson's duel with former winner Kavin Smith will be Wednesday's main attraction.