Production continues to sparkle for mining leader
Q: Freeport McMoRan Copper & Gold Inc. has been a very good stock for me, but I wonder about what the general outlook is for commodities. What is your take? B.V., via the internetA: Global demand for copper will continue to come largely from China, which is a positive for this giant mining company.Even though China has lately been raising interest rates to try to reduce inflation, it is nonetheless expected to need large quantities of the industrial metal as its economy continues to grow for the foreseeable future.Freeport McMoRan Copper & Gold produces more copper than any other publicly traded company in the world, which ties its fortunes directly to the value of that metal, which can be volatile in price. Copper prices pulled back a bit on worries about Japan's nuclear problems and oil prices but nonetheless remain strong as demand continues to outstrip supply despite lagging US demand.Geographic diversification and quality assets of long durations are this firm's strengths. Its Indonesian Grasberg mining complex is the world's largest copper and gold mine in terms of recoverable reserves; it has operations in North and South America; and it is developing a massive copper and cobalt deposit in the Democratic Republic of the Congo.Freeport McMoRan Copper & Gold (FCX) shares are down six percent this year following a gain of 50 percent last year and an increase of 229 percent in 2009. The firm is also a significant gold producer and the world leader in the production of molybdenum, which is a hard, silvery-white metal used to toughen alloy wheels.There is always the possibility that this powerhouse company, which purchased Phelps Dodge Corp. for $26 billion in 2007, could make another large acquisition. It has gradually been reducing debt and recently redeemed senior notes that reduced its debt load by more than $1 billion.Richard Adkerson, CEO and president, manages the company jointly with chairman James Moffett. Besides its ongoing operating efficiency, most important to Freeport McMoRan's future is a favourable climate for metals prices. There are inherent political and labor issues in the many different countries in which it operates, though it has a record of managing such complications well.Earnings are expected to increase 26 percent this year compared to 52 percent predicted for the copper industry, according to Thomson Reuters. Next year's earnings are forecast to rise 8 percent versus 13 percent industry-wide. The five-year annualised growth rate is expected to be two percent compared to 15 percent for its peers.Q: I would like your opinion of Jensen J Fund. K.G., via the internetA: Since it has a concentrated portfolio of 30 stock names and is willing to hold large individual positions, you must have confidence in its managers.They screen 10,000 publicly traded companies to find the 200 or so that have provided returns of at least 15 percent in each of the past 10 years. From these they make low-priced selections of stocks with the best prospects. While there is low portfolio turnover, if a holding doesn't continue to perform at the same level or has reduced future growth prospects, then it will be sold.The $3.8 billion Jensen J Fund (JENSX) is up 12 percent over the past 12 months to rank in the lowest one-tenth of large growth funds. Its three-year annualised return of four percent places in the upper one-fourth of its peers.“Jensen J Fund is a good core holding for a lot of investors, even though it has such a concentrated portfolio, because it is less volatile than the Standard & Poor's 500,” said Greg Carlson, mutual fund analyst for Morningstar Inc. in Chicago.“The best way to have it in a personal portfolio would be teamed with a deep value fund that invests in troubled compa nies.” Despite the retirement of three of its team's portfolio managers in the past two years, the fund has handled those transitions well and an experienced group remains in place. Robert Zagunis has been a manager since 1993, Robert McIver since 2005 and Kurt Havnaer since 2007. The fund is supported by analysts Allen Bond and Kevin Walkush.Twenty-one percent of the fund's assets are in healthcare, with about 17 percent apiece in industrial materials, software and consumer goods. It holds little money in cash and has no foreign stocks. Top holdings include Microsoft Corp., T. Rowe Price Group, Medtronic Inc., 3M Co., PepsiCo Inc., United Technologies Corp., Adobe Systems Inc., Omnicom Group, Stryker Corp. and Abbott Laboratories.This “no-load” (no sales charge) fund requires a $2,500 minimum initial investment and has an annual expense ratio of 0.92 percent.Andrew Leckey answers questions only through the column. Address inquiries to Andrew Leckey, 555 N. Central Ave., Suite 302, Phoenix, Ariz. 85004-1248, or by e-mail at andrewinvaol.com