Monsanto expected to grow on long-term strategy
Q. With crop prices rising so much, why aren’t my Monsanto Co shares doing the same thing?A. The world’s biggest seed company has been firmly focused on farmers, who are crucial to its business.While prices of agricultural commodities have been rising dramatically since last summer due to poor weather and strong global demand, Monsanto is more interested in longer-term market share. So it has discounted the prices that it charges farmers for its patented, genetically engineered seeds to encourage them to buy and plant more of them in their fields.Monsanto considers its innovative seeds, rather than its traditional pesticides and herbicides that increasingly face generic competition, to be a primary profit centre for the future. A lot depends on public acceptance here and abroad of genetically engineered food, since farmers take that into account as well when they are deciding which seeds to adopt.As a growing world population increases the need for more planted acreage and greater efficiency, the strategy makes sense for this company that is sophisticated in both research and development. Deutsche Bank gained attention in April when it upgraded Monsanto to “buy” in an analyst report, predicting the strategy “will drive share gains and mid-teens earnings-per-share growth over the next three years”.Yet that has translated into a near-term disappointment for investors who expected dramatic 2011 profit gains. Second-quarter profits were up 15 percent compared to the year earlier but chairman, president and CEO Hugh Grant has said that discounts and the losses from Roundup herbicide would weigh on full-year profits.Monsanto shares are down three percent this year following a decline of 15 percent last year. Investors must remember that weather, commodity prices, the need for popular new products, and government antitrust and environmental scrutiny will always be considerations affecting Monsanto’s prospects.Consensus analyst recommendation for Monsanto shares is between “buy” and “hold”, according to Thomson Reuters, consisting of four “strong buys”, five “buys” and 12 “holds”.This St. Louis-based company’s primary products are agricultural and vegetable seeds, plant biotechnology traits, and crop protection materials. It has facilities in 66 countries and serves more than 100 countries.Monsanto earnings are expected to increase 19 percent this year versus 35 percent expected for the agricultural inputs industry, according to Thomson Reuters.Next year’s forecast for 18 percent compares to 16 percent predicted industry-wide. Expected five-year annualised return is 15 percent versus 14 percent projected for its peers.Q. How about Legg Mason Capital Management Value Fund for my portfolio? Good or bad?A. Now that we know even Warren Buffett can make mistakes, perhaps we shouldn’t be so hard on portfolio manager Bill Miller.The contrarian Miller’s reputation as one of history’s greatest fund managers was built on this fund beating the broad market every year from 1991 to 2005.Then he erred by investing in an array of financial stocks right as the bottom was about to fall out. His aura of invincibility quickly evaporated.More than one-fourth of this fund’s portfolio is still in financials. The largest stock holding, representing seven percent of the portfolio, is uncommon for this type of fund: AES Corp, which provides electricity generation in 28 countries.The performance of the $4 billion Legg Mason Capital Management Value Fund C ranks near the bottom of large-cap growth and value funds for the one-, three-, five- and 10-year annualised periods.It gained five percent in the past 12 months and turned in annualised declines of around six percent for the three- and five-year annualised periods. It posted an annualised decline under two percent for the 10-year period.“The pattern of performance, especially the past five years, has been hit or miss,” said Bridget Hughes, mutual fund analyst with Morningstar Inc in Chicago, noting its dry spells impact even long-term numbers.“I don’t think this is suitable as a core holding because it has always been a pretty risky fund concentrated in a small number of stocks.”Miller does have more than $1 million of his own money invested, so he too can feel investors’ pain. He looks for inexpensive stocks and is willing to venture into risky sectors and turnaround plays. The top stocks can often represent a large portion of assets.Sam Peters, fund co-manager since yearend 2010, will become manager whenever Miller steps down, though no date has been given for a Miller retirement. Peters heads Legg Mason’s research team and, like Miller, is a value investor.Legg Mason Capital Management Value Fund C requires a 0.95 percent “load” (sales charge) and a $1,000 minimum initial investment. Annual expense ratio is 1.76 percent.Q. I won a trip with airfare and hotel. What am I obligated to pay the IRS and what documentation do I need?A. Congratulations on your prize and your tax awareness. Though many people don’t realize it, the IRS does indeed consider noncash prize winnings taxable.The value of the prizes is reported on your IRS Form 1040, line 21, under “Other Income.”“The only documentation you are required to have is what is provided to you from the company or organisation that awarded you the prizes,” explained Leisa Aiken, CPA and certified financial planner with VEO Financial Counsel LLC in Chicago.The organisation awarding the prize will send you an IRS Form 1099 declaring the value of the airfare and hotel stay.If you do not receive this in a timely fashion, be sure to inquire about it, since you must be able to produce this information for tax purposes.It also pays to double-check the value that was put on the prizes, since organisations are not infallible in assessing such values.Avoid the possibility of being over-assessed by going over that amount carefully yourself.Andrew Leckey answers questions only through the column. Address inquiries to Andrew Leckey, 555 N Central Ave, Suite 302, Phoenix, Arizona 85004-1248, USA or by e-mail at andrewinv@aol.com)