The Progressive Labour Party is holding onto first place in the polls despite public opinion sinking on the ruling party.But the election race is now at its closest point since the December 2007 General Election, with the PLP just two percentage points ahead of its nearest rival the One Bermuda Alliance.In the new Mindmaps poll, carried out just over a week ago, 27 percent of people said they would vote PLP, down five points from the previous survey in April and its joint lowest score since 2007.Taking part in its first poll, the OBA scored 25 percent; in the April survey, the United Bermuda Party had scored 28 percent. The UBP, which still has two MPs but virtually no party machinery, scored two percent in the new poll.Public opinion on the PLP's performance is at a new low, with an approval rating of ten percent, a fall of six points from April, when the party recorded what was then its lowest ever score of 16 percent.This represents a significantly different picture to January when, under the new Premier Paula Cox, the PLP enjoyed an approval rating of 44 percent.Ms Cox’s approval rating has fallen from 40 percent to 16 percent in that time; her favourability rating has dropped from 62 percent in her honeymoon period to 25 percent now, which is lower than the 27 percent her predecessor Ewart Brown scored in his final poll in October 2010.Ms Cox, who is also Finance Minister, has overseen a period in which confidence in the direction of Bermuda's economy has plummeted (see tomorrow's Royal Gazette for more poll results).A breakdown by race shows much of the white support has transferred from the UBP to the OBA.In the new poll, 48 percent of whites said they would vote OBA, compared with just 16 percent of blacks. By comparison, in April's survey the UBP claimed support from 53 percent of whites and 13 percent of blacks.The PLP now claims 39 percent of the black vote, down from 52 percent in the last poll. The PLP gets three percent of the white vote, marginally down from the four percent three months ago, but better than the zero percent under Dr Brown's leadership 12 months ago.The UBP, which many believe failed because it couldn't attract enough black support, is now doing marginally better among blacks than whites.Two percent of blacks support the UBP, compared with one percent of whites.Overall, the number of people planning to vote has decreased, with 79 percent likely to vote this time, compared with 84 percent three months ago.Reacting to the results, PLP public relations officer Curtis Williams said: “The Progressive Labour Party is steadfast in our mission to ensure that Bermuda emerges from the Great Recession stronger than before.“Our Party Leader and the PLP team are firmly committed to the people of Bermuda, and will continue to provide opportunities for our people to succeed and build a better life for themselves and their families.“The people of Bermuda have heard and will hear more about the Government's continuing plans to retrain Bermudians and put our people to work.”OBA chairman Michael Fahy said: “A significant majority of Bermudians have lost faith in the PLP Government's ability to protect the people's interest and to assure them there will be a better, more secure future.“This is a consequence of years when the Government failed to act on best advice to adjust their policies to care for the public purse or to prepare for anticipated challenges, from international competitors luring away businesses to the recession.“The Government's new plan to reverse long-standing PLP policies is tacit and belated recognition that it got things badly wrong.“The widespread disapproval of the Government's performance reflects not just the hardship that thousands of families are experiencing today but also a deep concern that the Government does not know how to manage The Fates: arguably the most important quality for the success of any Bermuda Government.“The performance rating of the One Bermuda Alliance is disappointing, despite the fact that the party is only weeks old and that this is our first poll.“I have spoken with quite a few of my colleagues about the result and I can say it only steels our determination to work harder to get the Island on the path to recovery, where jobs are worked and pay cheques are earned by all who want to participate.“We will continue to present ideas and solutions for safer streets, more jobs and an education system that enables our children to take advantage of a growing economy. We believe in Bermuda and that gives us confidence to keep moving forward. Bermuda can do so much better.”UBP leader Kim Swan pointed out that the previous poll in April showed the combined Opposition of UBP and Bermuda Democratic Alliance, had scored 35 percent.He said: “Notwithstanding, the result reflects the disrespect shown to UBP by members who were elected under its banner in December 2007 but failed to resign their seats to form a new party.“It has shown up clearly when you compare the combined Opposition poll last quarter when the combined parties polled at 35 percent. That poll result reflected more a coalition between UBP/BDA.”He added that the number of ‘don't knows' had climbed from 23 percent to 37 percent.“This high unknown number can possibly be associated with the elimination of BDA's seven percent not translating to OBA and uncertainty surrounding the UBP proving to be huge,” he said.“To paraphrase Bob Marley, they can run away but they can't run away from themselves.”The telephone poll of 400 registered voters took place between June 26 and July 3 and has a margin of error of 4.9 percent.lUseful websites: www.mindmaps.bm, www.plp.bm, www.oba.bm, www.onebda.com