The Opposition One Bermuda Alliance is retaining its overall seven-point lead in the popular vote over the ruling party as the deadline for the general election looms.In the latest poll by MindMaps, commissioned by The Royal Gazette, 45 percent of registered voters surveyed said they would vote OBA in a general election, a nine point increase over the support the party had in May.But the ruling Progressive Labour Party is also registering an increase in support with 38 percent saying they would vote for it come election time, up from 29 percent in May.And it appears that the ruling party is gaining support among voters who have only known a PLP government, 18-34 year olds.The electorate is also more decisive — only 13 percent of registered voters said they did not know which way they would vote, compared to 32 percent in May.And 79 percent of those polled said they were likely to vote in the coming election — up from 73 percent in May.Among whites, support for the OBA has increased — from 67 percent to 83 percent — and the party’s support among black voters remains almost unchanged with 23 percent saying they would vote OBA at the next general election.Support for the PLP among white voters has dropped — from seven percent in May to two percent.But the ruling party now has 58 percent of the black vote, up from 42 percent in May, while 15 percent of black voters remain undecided.In May, 37 percent of black voters indicated that they were undecided or refused to say how they would vote.Broken down by age, the results show a surge in support for the PLP among the youngest bloc, 18-34 year olds. Forty-five percent of these voters said they would vote for the ruling party, compared to 36 percent who said they would vote OBA, and another 14 percent are undecided.In May, support for the PLP among 18-34 year olds was 28 percent compared to 39 percent for the OBA, while 26 percent were undecided.The OBA said the results indicate that voters are thinking seriously about change.Meanwhile, the ruling party dismissed what it called “horse-race polls”.“We’re not focused on polls, we’re focused on standing strong for Bermudians during these tough economic times. We’re focused on outlining a bold vision for governance in the Throne Speech where we will build on the success of programmes that we’ve championed like the EEZ, DayCare, FutureCare and investments in infrastructure,” an official PLP statement noted.“We look forward to offering voters a stark choice in the next election between an OBA that has offered no ideas and no solutions to our most vexing challenges and a PLP that has proven that it is standing strong for all Bermudians during tough economic times.”Kim Swan, interim leader of the UBP, said that the survey “reinforces that Bermuda is sorely fragmented with the two major parties of Bermuda relying predominantly on a people still divided by race and by other polarising factors.”Mr Swan added that Bermudians want “the best people running Bermuda’s affairs, irrespective of party affiliation.”“Our candidacy represents an opportunity for the electorate of Bermuda to express their vote outside of the norm portrayed by the opinion polls constantly bombarding households.”OBA Chairman Thad Hollis said that the poll shows that people are not happy with the current leadership.“The big lesson that I think can be taken from this latest poll is that people are fed up with the direction in which Bermuda is going,” Mr Hollis said in a statement issued by his party.“They want strong leadership and they don’t feel they’re getting it from the Honourable Premier and her colleagues in the Cabinet. Levels of satisfaction with the performance of the PLP and its leaders have dropped significantly.“On the other hand, we in the OBA are encouraged that the level of our popularity seems to be holding up strongly.”–Mr Hollis added that the fact that the number of undecided voters has dropped shows that “people are beginning to think seriously about the necessity for change, and are realising more and more that it’s now or never!“I think they will be pleasantly surprised when we announce where the OBA thinks Bermuda should go and how we intend to steer it there, as we will when the date of the election is set.“In contrast, the PLP has shown absolutely no sign of having a plan to get us out of the mess we’re in. Indeed, they’ve shown every sign of not even understanding the mess we’re in. They have been extremely defensive about their mismanagement of the economy of late, and about their mismanagement of the country’s money.“All they seem able to say is ‘it won’t happen again’ — but frankly, most people know better than that by now.“They seem to have settled on a plan of winning this election simply by badmouthing the OBA and talking about the wonderful things they’ve done in the past.“The people don’t want to know where we’ve been, they want to know where we’re going!”PLP supporters, like blogger Christopher Famous, remain confident.“The OBA’s gain was almost entirely from consolidating the white vote. That’s the old UBP base. There is really no surprise there,” said Mr Famous.“The real good news for the PLP is the black vote. We remain Family. It jumped to 58 percent while the OBA saw their share of the black vote stay the same. The big problem for the OBA is that they have failed to do any better than the old UBP even after a name change.”He added that PLP initiatives such as DayCare, FutureCare and the Economic Empowerment Zones showed that his party is behind “previously disenfranchised Bermudians.”“What’s troubling for the OBA is that their slick videos and campaigns have not done much to convince black Bermudians to support them. Yes, it brought back the white vote, but, they already had that vote,” he added.“Polls before the 2003 and 2007 election said the UBP was leading. But we know how that turned out.”Mr Famous added that he believed “race-based polling” should end.Christian Dunleavy, a supporter of the OBA, said that the most interesting aspect of the survey was the increase in likelihood of voting and a strong decline in the undecided category.“I think conventional wisdom has been that this election would see a low, or at least lower turnout due to voter apathy and disenchantment. The polling suggests this may not be the case,” he said.“This may be a bad omen for an incumbent party in a weakening economy. While the OBA’s lead has stayed the same, voters’ opinions appear to be taking hold. The UBP and any third party candidates will likely prove to be a non-factor, other than St George’s with Kim Swan, which could prove interesting.”Mr Dunleavy added that the last two elections had shown that the “unknowns” had tended to vote in favour of the PLP which still had “a deep well of goodwill in the community since the 1998 win.“This has helped them overcome controversy and scandal assisted by an opposition very much in turmoil for the past decade. The OBA appear much more organised and cohesive as a group than the UBP were, but they need to maintain and build as big a lead as possible as they head into the campaign period.“The poll suggests to me that this will be a very competitive election. The main challenge that faces the Opposition is not winning the popular vote, but winning a clear 19-seat majority.”MindMaps interviewed a sample of 400 Bermuda residents aged 18 years and over between September 11 and 16.Qualified respondents were registered voters who said they were likely to vote and the margin of error was +/- 4.9 percent.The data was weighted to be representative of Bermuda’s population by age, race and gender.