Disruption to the political status quo and unrest as a result of economic pressures were among forecasts as observers considered what could unfold over the next 12 months.

Many people seem to agree that the most obvious non-prediction for 2025 is that there will be a General Election.

With the corporate income tax revenue soon to be enough to repair the island’s potholes with gold, a doubling down of expensive promises can be expected in the Budget next month.

Keen eyes will be on the progress of the Free Democratic Movement and independent candidates, which both gained some traction in 2024.

David Burt, the Premier, has said he will step down as Progressive Labour Party leader in 2026. So will he, if not publicly, anoint a successor?

A General Election will also be the real test of the One Bermuda Alliance to see if, after the debacle of 2020 when it could field only 31 candidates, it can offer the electorate a viable political alternative.

Sir John Swan, whose name has been used by some for the so-called ‘Swanite’ Movement of Independent Candidates, was in no doubt about what lies ahead.

“The times they are a-changing,” the former premier said.

“Any political observer watching the unfolding of international politics over the past year can only come away with one conclusion: the electorates, almost worldwide, are unsatisfied with the status quo. Be it in France, the UK, Germany and now the USA. Governments with substantial majorities have been thrown out.”

He added that major issues such as the economy, cost of living and immigration have dominated politics across the world — with the same matters set to have a significant impact on home soil this year.

Sir John said: “More families are leaving Bermuda, not because they want to, but because they feel they have no alternative.

“So many are having to make decisions about whether they can afford to pay for prescriptions, rent or put food on the family table.

“The pride in being Bermudian, the confidence in our leadership, hope for the future, all are being eroded, almost on a day-to-day basis.”

Sir John listed a litany of issues he said were affecting the island — from a lack of available hospital beds, to a diminishing pension fund and deteriorating infrastructure.

On what 2025 will feature, he said: “There will be a General Election and the current imbalance of power will be substantially corrected by an electorate determined to find new leadership.

“Disciplined, focused and determined individuals will cast aside loyalty to political party, replacing it with loyalty to country, and will stand forward as independent candidates.

“Independent candidates will be elected in sufficient numbers to hold the balance of power and thus be able to cause the needed change in the way we do business.

“And, as this new breed of national politician emerges, the old system of political ‘gangs’ where retribution and reward rotates between individuals loyal to one party or the other will be replaced by an engagement of all talents, all skills, who will stand shoulder to shoulder determined to solve Bermuda’s issues and cause it to re-emerge as a beacon of hope for our people.”

The PLP said it understood the challenges faced by many people on the island but that opportunities to strengthen communities also exist.

It added: “We will advance plans to expand preventive care by increasing doctor and specialist visits covered by HIP and FutureCare.

“We will develop a seniors daycare centre to provide care for our seniors and ease the burden on the people who care for them.

“We will continue to raise seniors’ pensions while reducing taxes on working and middle-class families to keep more money in Bermudians’ pockets.

“We will put shovels in the ground on more affordable housing units as we continue to invest record sums in housing to ensure that every Bermudian has access to a safe and secure place to call home.

“We will expand our efforts to address violence at its roots. This means focusing on educating our young people — especially our young men — through education reform that includes giving them the opportunity to gain a trade or skill.”

The PLP said that infrastructure will also be a key focus.

It added: “You see the crews out fixing our roads and beautifying our community. They are working, but more needs to be done to create an environment where Bermudians can feel proud of our island’s infrastructure.

“In 2025, our team of MPs, senators and candidates remains steadfast in our commitment to building a fairer Bermuda for all.

“We know residents are impatient for results, but change is a long road.

“Together, we can create a Bermuda where fairness isn’t just a far-off vision but a reality for every Bermudian, no matter who they are.“

The OBA was asked for its 2025 political predictions but the party declined to comment.

Omar Dill, the chairman of the FDM, was pessimistic about the year ahead.

He said: “I predict that the economic pressure we’re seeing today will lead to unrest similar to what Bermuda experienced in the 1970s.”

In a reference to the theme of the 2024 Throne Speech, Mr Dill added: “Empty words and justifications won’t work any more. All the talk about a “fairer Bermuda” is just that, talk.

“The reality is, most Bermudians are struggling and it’s foolish to think the people responsible for this mess will suddenly fix it.

“In 2025, the push will grow for representatives who are not only relatable, but who genuinely understand the struggles of the public they serve.”

He added: “The FDM’s main focus remains reducing the cost of living without jeopardising our children’s futures.

“It is time for us to stop settling for buzzwords and performances dressed up as leadership.

“In 2025, I hope to see a collective awakening and a shift towards governance that is focused on delivering genuine progress for the public who need it most.”

Other political pundits, less driven by party or political dogma, all agreed that there would be a General Election in 2025, although they differed on the timing.

Party leadership would also emerge as an issue with one person predicting that Ben Smith could oust Jarion Richardson as the OBA leader this year.

One young Bermudian, a keen political watcher, predicted the election would be between April and July, with the expectation that the 2025-26 Budget would set the election tone.

He said: “Historically, the PLP has timed elections to follow key fiscal moments, using the opportunity to highlight their governance.

“This year will be no different, with the expected budget surplus giving them an ideal platform to frame their accomplishments and set the tone for their campaign.”

The observer added: “I’m expecting targeted measures that address cost-of-living pressures, job creation and economic growth.

“This will position the PLP as not only effective stewards of the economy, but also as the party best equipped to deliver on the promises of progress and stability.”

With the PLP, OBA, FDM and independents, there will be a crowded election field and a fragmented opposition, he said.

“In some constituencies, we could see as many as four contenders. However, with no coalition in sight among opposition parties, the vote is likely to splinter.

“While the One Bermuda Alliance might claw back a few seats from 2020, the independents and the FDM will likely struggle to gain traction and may hurt each other’s chances. I’m predicting the PLP will hold onto Government.”

Another, who has watched Bermudian politics for years, was succinct in his predictions.

“There will be an election called in the first quarter of 2025, probably in January before the Budget is presented in February.

“The PLP will win the election with fewer seats. There’s a lot of apathy among the electorate.”

He said it would be similar to 2012, when many people eligible to vote stayed at home.

The commenter added: "The FDM and independent coalition will win, at most, two or three seats.

“I don’t see them winning more than that, especially if there are three or four choices in a constituency.

“As opposed to trying to have someone run in every constituency, the FDM and independents should work together and focus their efforts on those marginal seats.

“However, egos will likely get in the way of that happening.”

A former politician said the election would come soon after the Budget, with Mr Burt leading the PLP to another victory, but with a reduced majority.

“He may lose as many as six or seven seats but more likely he will only lose four. It will still be a commanding majority for the PLP.”

He added: “Mr Burt will likely step down after two thirds of his term.

“Look for Jason Hayward to continue to be pushed to the top position. He is strong with the PLP delegates.”

The observer further predicted that Zane DeSilva, a PLP backbencher, will attempt to challenge Mr Burt, but will lose.

It is anticipated that the Government’s tax revenue could grow by as much as $750 million thanks to the corporate income tax and the former politician added: “It will be an overwhelming windfall for the PLP.”

He also predicted that “Jarion Richardson will hang on to the OBA leadership and be summarily booted towards the end of 2025 and replaced by Ben Smith, with Scott Pearman as deputy”.

He added: “The FDM will struggle to find candidates as will the Swanites as the talent pool is not deep enough to choose from.”

One longtime observer of politics in Bermuda said that 2025 would be dominated by the General Election.

“The political silly season will just continue to accelerate and expand until the writ is dropped, and then it will explode further. I’d reckon it will reach fever pitch from the budget debate on.

“I imagine the Premier will pitch himself as a bridging candidate to ensure a seamless political transition from his premiership to whoever will take over from him in the next PLP leadership election.

“Depending on the outcome of the General Election, that may be potentially brought forward.

“I imagine his heir apparent will be made clear during the election campaign, though of course the election results will determine the potential pool of candidates for that leadership election.”