Two veterans of Bermuda’s political scene have drawn different conclusions from the result of the General Election on Tuesday.

However, both Michael Dunkley and Jonathan Starling, who come from opposite sides of the political divide, did agree on one thing — that the Progressive Labour Party will be satisfied with the outcome.

Although the PLP lost four seats, it still emerged with a comfortable 25-11 majority once the polls had closed.

Mr Dunkley, a former One Bermuda Alliance premier, said that his party could have fared better, but was hampered by elements outside of its control.

He said that the recent rise of an independent movement, which resulted in an unprecedented 26 candidates entering the political fray, had taken votes from the OBA.

Although they failed to win a single seat, independent candidates swept up more than 2,200 votes — almost 10 per cent of all ballots cast.

Mr Dunkley said: “Independent candidates and the Free Democratic Movement provided cover for the PLP’s poor performance over the last few years as government, taking votes from the OBA which were critical in swing seats such as constituencies 19 [Pembroke West] and 28 [Warwick West].”

Mr Starling, a political commentator and activist, did not say what impact independent candidates may have had on the final result.

But he argued that, such is the loyalty of PLP supporters, when dissatisfied with the party’s performance they will stay at home and not vote rather than betray their team with a vote for a rival party.

He said: “PLP voters historically don't defect; certainly not to the OBA.

“They either vote or they vote with their feet and don't turn out. The OBA only won in 2012 because PLP voters didn't turn out in large enough numbers.

“While some PLP voters may have opted for some independents, for the most part I think the missing PLP voters simply didn’t turn out to vote at all.”

Mr Dunkley said that, despite its defeat, the OBA could draw several positives from Tuesday night.

He said: “In spite of independents and the FDM being spoilers and impacting the OBA total vote count, the OBA still managed to increase its total vote count in the last election from 32.34 per cent to 36.86 per cent, or 700 votes.

“And while the OBA gained four seats, a number of other seats were in play. A review of the election results shows that there are now more potential swing seats than in past elections.”

Mr Starling said he thought the OBA would be disappointed with its performance.

He said: “I feel they’ve just been content to be ‘not the PLP’ and while that guarantees them a certain amount of votes, I don’t think it’s enough to win power, except in circumstances like 2012 when enough PLP voters stayed away.

“So, the OBA either has to hope for external circumstances to lead PLP voters to not vote or they need to give voters a reason to actually vote for them in a positive sense rather than the negative sense of ‘not being the PLP’.”

He offered one crumb of comfort: “So far they've been not even an effective Opposition, let alone a government-in-waiting. Perhaps with 11 MPs as opposed to six, they can be more effective.“

For Mr Dunkley, the low voter turnout — just over 50 per cent — was an indication of dissatisfaction with politics among the electorate.

He said: “The general message, as illustrated by a lower than usual turnout and a high number of independent candidates, was a feeling of unhappiness with the current state of affairs and a lack of confidence for a better tomorrow.

“There is widespread dissatisfaction with politicians that must be reversed for the good of the island.”

Mr Starling provided a more pragmatic explanation: the massive majority that the PLP enjoyed after the 2020 General Election had led to complacency among its supporters this time around.

He said: “It appears that perhaps up to 30 per cent of the PLP voter base didn’t show up. I suspect some may have defected to independent candidates, although I reckon the majority of that missing 30 per cent of PLP voters simply stayed home.

“Safe seats were a factor of PLP voters not turning out, as opposed to anything the OBA did.”

Mr Starling acknowledged that, while a shrinking PLP vote was a cause for concern, it had not translated into an increased vote for the OBA.

He said: “A win is a win, and with our Westminster system, they arguably have a landslide in terms of seats. So, yes, in that sense I think the PLP will be very happy.

“In the immediate sense, the PLP should indeed be celebrating. In the more long-term sense, the PLP is going to have to do a post-mortem and find out how to win back those missing voters. Otherwise, they may risk a big challenge in the next election.”

Mr Dunkley agreed.

He said: “The PLP must be very pleased by the result, even though they did not obtain a majority of the votes cast — 49.6 per cent down from 62 per cent in 2020.

“Premier Burt is smiling. He could not have asked for anything more.”