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Everest sees Japan loss of $320m

Scene of devastation: A house washed away by the March 11 tsunami sits amid the ruin in the town of Minamisanriku, Japan

Everest Re Group Ltd last night announced it expects to take a $320 million hit from last month’s earthquake and tsunami in Japan.Fellow Bermuda re/insurer Aspen Insurance Holdings Ltd also declared an estimated loss of $160 million from the event, while Omega Insurance Holdings Ltd estimated a $23.6 million loss.Aspen chief executive officer Chris O’Kane now believes that the industry’s huge first-quarter catastrophe losses have set the scene for “meaningful positive price changes” for about a third of his company’s 2011 business.Claims have come pouring in during the first three months of this year for the Island’s insurance market, one of the world’s leading centres for providing property and catastrophe reinsurance.Loss estimates announced for the New Zealand earthquake in February, as well as flooding and storms early in the year in Australia, topped $2 billion for the local market.The Japan losses come on top of that and will lead to some hefty first-quarter net losses being declared by many Bermuda companies over the coming weeks.Everest said its loss estimate assumed a $25 billion industry loss from the Japan disaster and is based on a combination of modelled information, underwriter analysis, preliminary client discussions, and a profile of exposed limits within the affected region.“Given the frequency and severity of recent events, we expect market pricing to firm worldwide for property catastrophe capacity,” said Everest chairman and chief executive officer Joseph Taranto.“With significant financial resources, despite the losses in the first quarter, we are well prepared to respond to our clients’ needs”Aspen’s initial $160 million loss estimate is post tax and net of reinstatement premiums, and is consistent with an industry insured loss of $30 billion.This represents five percent of shareholders’ equity as at the end of 2010.Aspen added that its estimate is based on the company’s review of the market loss, the individual treaties and policies expected to be impacted and discussions with clients and brokers.“The Tohoku earthquake has contributed to an extremely active first quarter in terms of natural catastrophe events, and we believe that it is important to highlight a positive change in trading conditions and market sentiment which took place in March,” Mr O’Kane said.“We had anticipated that rates for our property reinsurance account would reduce by between five percent and 10 percent in the April renewals whereas we have achieved average rate increases of five percent.“This understates the improvement as approximately 40 percent of April renewal premium was quoted or completed prior to the Tohoku earthquake.He added that he was aware of 17 catastrophe programmes where the placement had initially been quoted before the Tohoku earthquake and, which had to be re-priced to secure completion.“We believe that the catastrophe events in the first quarter, combined with low investment returns and the profound change in exposure modelling implied by the latest release from one of the principle vendor modelling agencies, have created conditions for much better pricing for catastrophe exposed property lines of business,” Mr O’Kane continued.“Up to 35 percent of our 2011 business could consequently be subject to meaningful positive price changes. Our balance sheet remains strong and we believe that we are well positioned to benefit from an improved pricing environment.”He added: “We wish to extend our deepest sympathies to all of those impacted by the events in Japan and throughout the Asia-Pacific region. We remain committed to providing continued support to our clients at this very difficult time.”As well as publishing loss estimates of nearly $24 million for the Japan event, Omega also gave updated estimates of losses from earlier events.The company expects losses from January’s Queensland floods of $7.6 million and from the Christchurch earthquake of $9.5 million. The estimates are both within previously estimated ranges.Omega said its Japan estimates, which are based on an industry loss estimate of $25 billion, were still at a very early stage.“There is still significant uncertainty surrounding the total market loss of this event and these estimates will be subject to revision as loss notifications are received and information becomes clearer,” Omega said in a statement yesterday.Omega, which posted losses of more than $40 million for 2010 is a takeover target and the company has said it has received more than one offer.UK-based Canopius, which also has an underwriting platform in Bermuda is one of Omega’s suitors.