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Storm power rising with global temperatures

Getting stronger: Tropical Cyclone Winston, which struck Fiji last month, is the most powerful cyclone on record in the southern hemisphere

Concern that warming global temperatures will create more powerful tropical storms and hurricanes, and potentially costlier catastrophes for insurers, appears to have been borne out during the past six months, with both the northern and southern hemispheres recording their strongest tropical cyclones on record.

Hurricane Patricia, which brought peak winds of 215mph to Mexico in October, and Tropical Cyclone Winston pummelled Fiji’s largest island, Viti Levu, with sustained winds of 185mph last month.

Data from space agency Nasa shows the average global surface temperature last month was 1.35C warmer than the average for the month between 1951 and 1980. That represents a far bigger margin than has previously been seen.

For a number of years insurers and reinsurers have warned about the growing risk posed by severe weather related to a warming planet, among them Bermudian-based Catlin Group, now merged with XL, which in 2014 stressed the need for further research on climate change to allow the insurance industry to adequately plan for associated risks.

And in January, Standard & Poor’s rating agency warned that the possible adverse effects of climate change could significantly dent a number of countries’ sovereign credit rating, including Bermuda’s.

The latest Global Catastrophe Recap from Aon Benfield, puts economic losses caused by Tropical cyclone Winston at $470 million, which is roughly 10 per cent of Fiji’s gross domestic product. The Category 5 storm killed at least 44 people, and insurers are bracing for claims to reach $47 million.

Matt Cullen, head of strategy at the Association of British Insurers in London, speaking last year ahead of United Nations Climate Change conference in Paris, last December, said insurers were paying close attention to climate change and recognised that it was in their interest to address the threat.

Aon Benfield’s latest report notes that the US recorded its highest number of February tornadoes since 2008, which added to a $1 billion month of disasters for the country, measured in terms of economic losses. For insurers the bill is expected to be in the “hundred of millions”.

Droughts in Asia and Africa have cost economic losses of more than $8 billion since the start of the year, with Vietnam experiencing its worst drought in 90 years.

Meanwhile, Zimbabwe declared a national disaster last month as its drought worsened. “The drought, which was exacerbated by El Nino, led to severe damage to crops and caused a severe shortage of drinking water,” stated Aon Benfield in its report.