Applied Research Associates Inc has released its latest and most comprehensive version of HurLoss Hurricane Catastrophe Model software, including a greatly expanded full North Atlantic basin event set that includes Bermuda.

New Mexico-based ARA said HurLoss now includes a significant expansion of regions and countries covered, providing a unified event set covering the entire North Atlantic basin, including the United States, the Caribbean, and eastern portions of Canada, Mexico and Central America, in addition to Bermuda.

The company said climate conditioning — or climate change — is a major new capability for HurLoss.

In addition to the standard long-term historical and near-term warm sea surface temperature climatology results, ARA is introducing future climate change based on several critical environmental inputs from leading general circulation models, which are used for weather forecasting and research.

It said this methodology was accepted by the Florida Commission on Loss Projection Methodology in June last year, the first model incorporating climate conditioning to receive approval.

Hurricane formation is especially responsive to the effects of a rapidly changing environment, ARA said, particularly warming sea surface temperatures.

However, the company’s future climate modelling is not limited to sea surface temperature, but also considers the concomitant effects of wind shear and tropopause temperature, which it says are equally important to the formation of hurricanes.

Tropopause is the atmospheric boundary that demarcates the troposphere from the stratosphere.

Faced with ever rapidly increasing pace of climate change, ARA said insurers and other modelling stakeholders will benefit from this new dynamic view, in addition to the traditional modelling industry views of hurricane risk.

“HurLoss provides insurers with a solid foundation of reliable, proven hurricane modelling to help manage risk while keeping an eye toward future peril,” said George Freimarck, ARA’s catastrophe modelling business leader.

“These enhancements will help ensure HurLoss continues to provide unparalleled insight into the potential impacts of hurricanes.”