Howden Re cautions on Hurricane Milton’s uncertainty
Florida braced for a second monster hurricane, even as it continued clearing debris from Hurricane Helene.
But more than a million people were ordered to evacuate as hurricane hunters remained uncertain about some aspects of the storm.
A Howden Re situation update stated: “There remains a degree of uncertainty surrounding Milton’s exact track and intensity, with the greatest consensus indicating landfall in the Tampa Bay/Sarasota region.
“By midday Wednesday, the storm is likely to encounter wind shear, which could weaken it. As wind shear takes effect, Milton's wind field is projected to expand significantly and could make landfall as a major Category 3 or 4 hurricane.”
Anna Neely, managing director, head of Catastrophe R&D at Howden, said: “Milton is currently classified as a High End Category 4 hurricane, with wind speeds of 155mph, and located approximately 520 miles southwest of Tampa Bay.
“The hurricane is forecast to make landfall as a Category 3 hurricane between Tampa Bay and Fort Myers late Wednesday night into very early Thursday morning, with estimated winds around 125mph and potential for further strengthening. It is now one of the strongest hurricanes in the Atlantic Basin since Dorian in 2019.”
The update said: “The Tampa/St Petersburg region experienced seven to nine feet of storm surge during Helene’s landfall, but with Milton, surge heights could reach 10-15 feet.
“Areas around Tampa Bay are particularly vulnerable to this surge due to their low elevation and proximity to the coast.
“If Hurricane Milton makes landfall as forecast, it will be the strongest hurricane to hit the Tampa Bay area since the 1921 Tampa Bay Hurricane, which caused devastating storm surge and widespread damage.
“Milton’s potential to bring higher surges, combined with a much denser population and modern infrastructure, could lead to catastrophic impacts.”
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