Moody’s RMS Event Response has updated its combined private market insured losses for Hurricanes Helene and Milton, to between $30 billion and $50 billion, down from $35 billion to $55 billion.

The credit ratings agency also estimated American private market insured losses from Hurricane Milton will be between $22 billion and $36 billion, with a best estimate of $26 billion.

Hurricane Milton was the 13th named storm of the 2024 North Atlantic hurricane season, the fifth hurricane to make landfall in the United States this season, the third in Florida.

It came ashore as a Category 3 hurricane near Siesta Key, Florida on October 9 with maximum sustained winds of 120mph miles per hour.

Moody’s estimate represents insured losses associated with wind, storm surge, and precipitation-induced flooding.

Mohsen Rahnama, chief risk modelling officer, Moody’s, said Florida was fortunate to avoid the ‘grey swan’ event many feared when Milton tracked and made landfall south of the Tampa-St Petersburg, Florida metro area.

A grey swan event is a risk with a potentially large impact but a low perceived likelihood of happening even though it is not entirely impossible.

Mr Rahnama said: “Still, the storm’s large swath of damaging winds, subsequent storm surge, and inland flood footprints affected key exposure areas throughout the state, which will undoubtedly make it one of the costliest hurricanes to impact west Florida.”

Additionally, Moody’s estimated losses to the National Flood Insurance Programme across both events could exceed $5 billion, largely driven by storm surge.

Estimated losses for Hurricane Milton reflect property damage and business interruption to residential, commercial, industrial, watercraft and automobile lines of business.

Jeff Waters, director North Atlantic Hurricane Models, Moody’s, said: “Alongside damaging wind, storm surge, and precipitation-induced inland flooding, the outer rain bands of Hurricane Milton also produced numerous damaging tornadoes across Florida.

“Damage surveys by the National Weather Service are still being conducted, but even the confirmed data to date, suggests that Milton produced one of the most prolific tornado outbreaks associated with a tropical cyclone in recent history.”