Hurricane Sam’s predicted path is grounds for optimism
The predicted track of a major hurricane is grounds for “cautious optimism”, the director of the Bermuda Weather Service said yesterday.
Mark Guishard said that Hurricane Sam, the 18th named storm of the season, was expected to move east of the island by the early weekend.
Dr Guishard said: “Sam will be steered between high pressure to its northeast and a cold front currently approaching the US eastern seaboard.
“The current expectation is that the steering flow created between these two weather systems will drive Sam east of Bermuda by the early weekend.
“An eastward passage, as we saw earlier this month with Hurricane Larry, means that Bermuda is likely to be on the weaker side of the storm during its closest point of approach.
“Most weather models are beginning to more consistently predict this scenario.”
Dr Guishard said Sam was downgraded from Category 4 to 3 yesterday, but was expected to continue to move between a strong Category 3 and a Category 4.
The Bermuda Weather Service update at 6am today reported that Sam was 1,245 miles to the southeast of Bermuda moving northwest at about 9 miles per hour.
It had maximum sustained winds of about 130mph with gusts of 160mph.
The Emergency Measures Organisation (EMO) will meet tomorrow to discuss Hurricane Sam.
The Minister of National Security, Renee Ming, said: “The Bermuda Weather Service (BWS) has provided regular and timely updates regarding the potential track of this latest storm. And we will also continue to keep the public abreast with regular advisories from the Ministry.
“We appreciate that this hurricane is generating considerable interest both locally and overseas. However, Bermuda is no stranger to serious storms. And as a country, we’ve been successful in managing serious hurricanes by being ready and prepared.
“At this stage it’s too early to say how Hurricane Sam will impact Bermuda. But from a storm preparation standpoint, we shouldn’t become complacent.
“We’re advising residents to prepare for any eventuality as each storm is different. To the community, we’re asking you to make sure you are storm ready. Residents should have the necessary supplies on hand and should also check their property and make any repairs necessary - this includes securing window shutters and blinds and trimming back any overhanging trees.
“Private sector businesses are also encouraged to check their buildings and review their hurricane plans. Additionally, businesses will have a number of staff working from home and on quarantine – this should be taken into consideration for hurricane planning.”
Sam’s closest approach to Bermuda inside three days was expected to be 460 miles to the south-southeast at 6am on Friday.
The US National Hurricane Centre said earlier that Sam had started to regain energy and was expected to intensify last night.
A spokesman added: “Sam's weakening trend ended earlier today. Over the past few hours, microwave data and satellite imagery indicate that the inner core and eyewall of the hurricane are making a comeback.
“There is now a clear eye in visible imagery.”
Dr Guishard said that hurricane force winds only extended 20 to 30 miles from the centre of the storm, though fluctuations in the size of the wind field were likely as it moved north out of the tropics.
He warned the public not to be complacent, despite Sam’s forecast path.
Dr Guishard said: “Uncertainty remains, as with all tropical disturbances and the hopeful message should not be an excuse for complacency.
“As we all know, hurricanes are generally less predictable in their behaviour than typical weather systems, so I would remind the public to remain vigilant.”
He added: “A shift to the left in the forecast track is not out of the question.
“Hence, it would be a good idea to once again dust off the hurricane plan and do any advanced preparation so that a last-minute change doesn’t mean a shorter time to get things done.”
Dr Guishard added that the position would become clearer over the next few days and advised the public to monitor the storm’s progress.
The National Hurricane Centre said: “Large swells generated by Sam are affecting the Leeward Islands and will spread to portions of the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, the Bahamas, and Bermuda by Thursday or Friday.
“Significant swells will likely reach the east coast of the United States and Atlantic Canada by the weekend.
“These swells will likely cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions and beachgoers and other interests along these coasts are urged to follow the advice of lifeguards and local officials through the upcoming weekend.”
The hurricane season has produced 19 tropical cyclones, 18 of them named storms.
The were seven that reached hurricane force and four, including Sam, were major storms of Category 3 or higher.
Dr Guishard said 19 tropical cyclones in a season was high - but not a record.
He added that last year had 30 named storms - the most since records began for the Atlantic.
There were 28 named storms in 2005 and 20 named storms in 1933.
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