UK hurricane forecaster predicts below-average season
A UK weather service has reduced its forecast for the 2023 Atlantic hurricane season, estimating a below-normal season.
In December, Tropical Storm Risk forecast the season would be about 15 per cent less active than the 30-year average.
However in an updated forecast released on Thursday, TSR estimated the season would be between 25 and 30 per cent quieter than average.
The forecast said that while “large uncertainties” are present, it was likely that conditions would be close to average between August and September, with a weak El Niño coming into effect during the period.
El Niño, a weather phenomenon which causes warmer sea temperatures in the Pacific Ocean, can have global effects on the weather.
El Niño conditions are expected to continue into the fall, causing stronger trade winds over the North Atlantic and Caribbean, along with stronger wind shear.
“The combined effect of these environmental factors are expected to suppress North Atlantic hurricane activity in 2023,” the forecast added.
The forecast estimated the Atlantic would see about 12 tropical storms over the course of the season, including six hurricanes.
Of those hurricanes, it was estimated that two could reach Category 3 strength.
The company predicted an Accumulated Cyclone Energy – a metric used to gauge the overall storm activity – of 84 in the 2023 season, which is below the 30-year norm of 122.
Last year, TSR forecast an ACE of 122 with 18 tropical storms, eight hurricanes and three major hurricanes.
In total, the 2022 hurricane season saw 14 tropical storms, eight hurricanes and two major hurricanes.
The 2023 hurricane season starts on June 1 and continues until November 30, however storms can form outside of that window.
The World Meteorological Organisation has set announced the list of names to be used for storms in the upcoming hurricane season.
That list is: Arlene, Bret, Cindy, Don, Emily, Franklin, Gert, Harold, Idalia, Jose, Katia, Lee, Margot, Nigel, Ophelia, Philippe, Rina, Sean, Tammy, Vince and Whitney.
The list is largely the same as the one used in 2017, however the names Harvey, Irma, Maria and Nate were all removed and replaced due to the impact that storms baring those names had that season.
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