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Weather system in January reclassified as subtropical storm

The newly named Tropical Depression One in a January 16 Tropical Weather Outlook (Image from the National Hurricane Centre)

Meteorologists have determined that a weather system which formed in January should have been classified as the first cyclone of the year.

The US-based National Hurricane Centre said the low-pressure system, which formed about 300 miles north of Bermuda, would be designated as a subtropical storm.

At the time, the NHC published a special tropical weather outlook for the system, which carried storm force winds, but determined that there was no possibility of the system becoming a tropical or subtropical cyclone.

However, on May 11 the body determined that after reassessment the system should be reclassified.

“National Weather Service policy allows for marginal subtropical systems to be handled in real-time as non-tropical gale or storm events in NWS High Seas Forecast products,” the NHC said.

“This was the procedure followed for the unnamed subtropical storm in mid-January.

“However, the lack of real-time issuance of advisories does not preclude NHC from retroactively designating these systems as a subtropical cyclones in post-analysis, if necessary.”

The body said that, given the change, the next system which forms in the Atlantic basin would be designated Tropical Depression Two.

However, the reclassification will not make the system the first named storm of the year as storms do not receive names until they reach tropical storm strength.

While the Atlantic hurricane season does not begin until June 1, pre-season storms are common enough that the NHC has considered moving the start of the season forward by around two weeks.

In the 1930s, the Atlantic hurricane season started on June 15 and ended on October 31 but it was gradually expanded until 1965, when the period from June 1 to November 30 was settled on.

Several preseason forecasts for the 2023 season have been released. However, the estimates range from a below-average season with 12 or 13 named storms to a busier than average season with as many as 20 named storms.

While most forecasts have predicted a return of El Niño conditions, which would limit storm development in the Atlantic, higher than usual water surface temperatures could offset that.

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Published May 08, 2023 at 6:45 pm (Updated May 19, 2023 at 6:41 pm)

Weather system in January reclassified as subtropical storm

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