Hurricane Lee is forecast to pass close to Bermuda as a Category 2 storm, nearer to the island than original estimates placed it but less powerful.

It will make its closest approach on Friday, according to the latest Bermuda Weather Service forecasts.

The BWS said that conditions on Thursday will begin to deteriorate as Hurricane Lee draws nearer to Bermuda.

“Latest guidance continues to show Lee weakening to a category 2 hurricane on Thursday and a category 1 hurricane on Friday as it makes its nearest pass,” said the BWS forecast.

“It should be noted that while only tropical storm force winds are forecast within a peak of 35 to 45 knots and gusts 60 knots, depending on the track of Lee, these values may need to adjusted upward or downward for a closer or further passage of Lee respectively.

“In addition, tropical storm force winds may begin and ease earlier than currently forecast.

“As Lee makes its nearest approach late Thursday night into Friday, periods of rain and showers are likely under overcast skies with improvement expected from Friday evening onwards.

“The public is urged to begin making preparations for Lee from today as winds increase strong by Wednesday which may hinder some preparations. The sea state will get very hazardous as seas peak between 18ft to 28ft.

“A tropical storm warning will likely be in effect by Thursday and a hurricane watch may also be required depending on the forecast track of Lee over the coming days.

“As winds ease overnight on Friday, tropical watches/warnings will be followed by a small craft warning once cancelled.”

The noon report forecast the closest approach within three days be 241 miles to the southwest at 12pm on Thursday.

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A small-craft warning was issued at 11.30am yesterday and will be in place until Tuesday night.

According to the US National Hurricane Centre, Air Force Reserve hurricane hunters find Lee strengthening, and hazardous beach conditions are expected to spread through the western Atlantic during the week.

The centre tweeted: “Too soon to know level of impacts for US East Coast or Atlantic Canada late this week, so stay tuned for updates.”

In its 5pm update last night, the centre said dangerous surf and life-threatening rip currents will affect portions of the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, the Turks & Caicos Islands, the Bahamas and Bermuda through much of the week.

It said: “Lee could bring wind, rainfall and high surf impacts to Bermuda later this week. Although it is too soon to determine the specific timing and level of those impacts, interests on Bermuda should regularly monitor the latest forecasts for Lee.”

It said the hurricane is expected to slow “considerably” over the southwestern Atlantic.

Hurricane Lee is the third major hurricane of the 2023 Atlantic hurricane season and became the first to reach Category 5 strength, on Thursday, although it weakened back to Category 4 on Friday morning and to Category 3 on Saturday night.

Only 16 Atlantic hurricanes have reached Category 5 strength, meaning that they have sustained winds of 158mph or greater, in the past 20 years.