Hurricane Tammy will have weakened to a storm by the time it passes the island later this week, forecasters said this morning.

The Category 1 system was about 606 miles to the south-southeast of Bermuda, packing winds of 75mph and tracking in a northeasterly direction at 6am.

Its closest point to the island in the next three days was forecast to be on Friday morning, by which time it will have curved westward and be about 217 miles to Bermuda’s east.

Forecasters warned the system could move closer after that time, depending on its track.

The Bermuda Weather Service said today: “The long term forecast for Tammy remains very uncertain, however models forecast that it will draw near Bermuda during the latter part of this week and BWS will continue to monitor Tammy’s progress.”

A forecaster wrote this morning: “The latest radar imagery shows clusters of weak to moderate echoes, with mostly light precipitation drifting in from the north. Northwesterly light to moderate winds veered towards the north through the night then increased near 12 to 17mph.

“Winds are then expected to veer north northeast 17 to 23mph by noon and then northeast 23 to 29mph overnight. Moderate seas will build moderate to rough by this afternoon.

“A small craft warning is in effect from this afternoon through tonight.”

The BWS added that models showed mixed predictions for Tammy but said the US National Hurricane Centre and UK models were closest, forecasting the system “passing near to our east then recurving back to the northeast on Saturday”.

According to the US NHC 5am advisory, the storm was moving northeast at 9mph and was packing winds of 75mph.

The 2023 hurricane season has been forecast to be busier than usual as warmer-than-normal water temperatures offset El Niño, a weather phenomenon known to limit hurricane development in the Atlantic.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration estimated in its mid-season forecast that the season could include 14 to 21 named storms, of which between six and 11 could reach hurricane strength.

Of those storms, it is estimated that two to five could become major hurricanes reaching at least Category 3 strength with winds of 111mph or greater.

The Atlantic has recorded 20 named storms this season, including seven hurricanes, three of which became major hurricanes. The season concludes at the end of November.

• UPDATE: This article has been updated with the latest information from the Bermuda Weather Service.