A British firm has warned that conditions could mean another active hurricane season in 2024.

The Tropical Storm Risk extended range forecast, released this week, estimates that warm waters in the Atlantic and a weakening El Niño could lead to an above-average number of storms next year.

It noted that at this early stage there was a high level of uncertainty in the forecast.

“This forecast has high uncertainty due to uncertainty in how warm the Atlantic and Caribbean Sea sea-surface temperatures will be in August and September 2024 and by how much this will influence the strength of the Caribbean trade winds,” TSR said.

The forecast suggested that the coming hurricane season could have as many as 20 named storms, including nine hurricanes, four of which could reach at least Category 3 intensity.

TSR said the basis for the extended forecast was an expectation that the main Atlantic development region and Caribbean Sea will experience warm sea-surface temperatures in August and September next year.

“Based on the consolidated International Research Institute for Climate and Society forecasts, we expect the ongoing El Niño has peaked in strength and will weaken through winter and spring 2024, with near-neutral El Niño-Southern Oscillation conditions anticipated through summer and autumn 2024,” the forecast added.

Last year’s extended range forecast from TSR predicted a slightly below-average 2023 season, with 13 named storms, six hurricanes and three major hurricanes.

The 2023 season was actually more active than average with a total of 20 named storms, with seven hurricanes and three major hurricanes.