Forecaster AccuWeather has warned that conditions this year threaten a “potentially explosive” hurricane season.

The US company’s 2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast, released yesterday, predicted between 20 and 25 named storms during this year’s season.

Of those storms, between eight and 12 are estimated to reach hurricane strength, with four to seven becoming major hurricanes of at least Category 3 strength.

The forecast is notably higher than the modern average of 14 named storms including seven hurricanes, three of which reach or exceed Category 3 strength.

Alex DaSilva, lead hurricane forecaster at AccuWeather, said: “The 2024 Atlantic hurricane season is forecast to feature well above the historical average number of tropical storms, hurricanes, major hurricanes and direct US impacts.

“All indications are pointing towards a very active and potentially explosive Atlantic hurricane season in 2024.”

Mr DaSilva noted that sea surface temperatures were “well above historic averages”, particularly in the Gulf of Mexico, the Caribbean and the main development region for tropical systems.

In addition to fuelling storm growth during the hurricane season, AccuWeather said the warmer waters also increased the likelihood of storms developing before the June 1 start of the season.

Another factor considered is an expected transition from El Niño conditions to La Niña conditions by mid to late summer.

El Niño, a weather pattern fuelled by warm waters in the Pacific, is known to create wind shear, which hinders storm development in the Atlantic.

La Niña conditions, however, often lead to reduced wind shear in the Atlantic.

Mr DaSilva added: “The faster the transition to La Niña occurs, the more active the hurricane season is likely to be.”

Brett Anderson, a senior meteorologist at AccuWeather, added that climate change was also increasing the likelihood of devastating landfalls.

Mr Anderson said: “We do not see a relationship yet between global warming and the total number of storms. The increase we are seeing is in the intensity of storms.

“Climate change is clearly playing a role with the notable uptick in the number of storms becoming major hurricanes in the Atlantic basin and how rapidly they intensify, especially over the past ten to 20 years.”

He added that rising sea levels along the East Coast would mean that storms were more likely to cause coastal flooding than they would have in past decades.

Last March, AccuWeather forecast that the 2023 season would include between 11 and 15 named storms, including four to eight hurricanes, of which one to three would reach or exceed Category 3 strength.

The season proved more active than forecast by the firm with 20 storms, including one unnamed preseason storm, seven hurricanes and three major hurricanes.

The hurricane season starts on June 1 and concludes on November 30.