The Bermuda Weather Service issued a Hurricane Warning as of its 6am update, with Ernesto gearing up to make a direct hit on the island.

According to the update, the closest point of approach in the next 72 hours is expected to be about 33 miles to the west of the island at 1pm on Saturday, by which point the storm will have reached Category 2 hurricane strength.

Overnight Ernesto has steadied as it prepares its approach, now moving at 13mph, with winds of 86mph and gusts to 104mph.

As of 9am, the storm was still about 605 miles south-southwest of the Bermuda.

Forecasters have projected that the storm will grow in strength to Category 3 by Friday afternoon, but weaken by Saturday morning as it descends upon Bermuda.

Michael Weeks, the Minister of National Security, urged the public to begin their preparations now.

“While Bermuda has been fortunate in recent years to avoid the worst impacts of hurricanes, we have to take each storm seriously and prepare accordingly,” Mr Weeks said.

“It only takes one storm to cause significant damage and disrupt our way of life.”

Mr Weeks said the storm is expected to bring hurricane force winds, rough seas and a high likelihood of power outages across the island.

“This is not the time to underestimate the power of nature,” he added.

“Time is of the essence. Preparations must be completed as soon as possible.”

Mr Weeks said that the Emergency Measures Organisation yesterday and will meet again today when decisions will be made based on the latest information.

“These decisions will include the operation of the Causeway, the airport, public transportation services such as buses and ferries, as well as other government services,” he said.

“We will also discuss the emergency shelter at CedarBridge Academy. Following this meeting, we will promptly inform the public of these decisions.”

Michelle Pitcher, the Bermuda Weather Service director, said tropical-storm-force winds were expected to reach the island by Friday afternoon.

Winds will continue to intensify overnight, with Bermuda expected to experience Category 1 hurricane winds of 75mph to 80mph by Saturday morning.

“It is a bit early for us to have exact timing and the details,” Ms Pitcher said. “That information will become much more solid and we will increase our confidence in our forecast as time goes on.

“However, we do need to be prepared for the strongest winds starting early Saturday morning.”

Ms Pitcher added that because the storm is expected to pass more than 50 miles to the island’s west, Bermuda may be able to avoid Category 2 conditions, but urged the public to stay informed as the situation could change.

“While we want to hope for the best and may see an improvement in our forecast, we do need to be prepared for the worst and a higher-intensity wind field.”

Ms Pitcher added that further rain was expected before Ernesto reaches the island and the public should be wary of flooding.

She said: “We have been very dry recently, with the Bermuda-Azores high over the area, and now it looks like all of the rain is coming.

“While no one wants to catch up on the rain all at once, it looks like we will be measuring several inches of rain by the time this event is over, so please be extra mindful of areas that tend to flood.”

Both Mr Weeks and Tinée Furbert, the Minister of Youth, Social Development and Seniors, urged the public to look out for vulnerable members of the community before and after the storm.

Ms Furbert said in a statement after the press conference: “Before the storm hits, please take a moment to check in on the seniors in your neighbourhood.

“Ensure they have the necessary supplies, know their emergency contacts and have a plan in place.

“Small acts of kindness, like helping to secure their homes or providing them with essential items, can make a significant difference.”

The US-based National Hurricane Centre said in its 9am update that the storm is expected to produce “significant coastal flooding” in Bermuda with large, destructive waves.

The storm is also expected to produce four to eight inches of rain with “isolated maximum amounts up to 12 inches” which could cause flash flooding.

“Ernesto is forecast to be a large hurricane near Bermuda on Saturday,” the NHC said.

“Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles from the centre and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles.”

A forecast from AccuWeather warned that Bermuda was forecast to be in the right front quadrant of Ernesto, “which is where we typically see the worst impacts from a storm”.

Wind gusts of more than 100mph were also predicted for parts of Bermuda, which could bring down trees and power lines.

The island could also be affected by storm surge of one to three feet from Friday night through Saturday.

“We could be dealing with a major hurricane approaching Bermuda this weekend,” warned Alex DaSilva, a hurricane expert with AccuWeather. “The centre of Ernesto could get as close as 50 miles away from Bermuda.”

The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 to November 30, with the modern average of about 14 named storms, including seven hurricanes and three major hurricanes.

Ernesto is the fifth named storm of the 2024 hurricane season, following Hurricane Beryl, Hurricane Debby, Tropical Storm Alberto and Tropical Storm Chris.

Forecasters at Colorado State University warned that Hurricane Beryl, the earliest Category 5 hurricane on record, which battered the Caribbean recently, was a “likely harbinger” of a hyperactive season fuelled by warmer-than-average waters.

In a revised forecast released by the CSU, it predicted 25 named storms, including 12 hurricanes, half of which would become major hurricanes.

The NHC forecast an 85 per cent chance of a busier-than-average season with between 17 and 25 named storms, while Britain’s Met Office forecast 22 named storms during the season.

• UPDATE: this article has been updated with weather information from 9am reports