Weeks after the end of the 2024 Hurricane Season, an early forecast has projected a near-average 2025 season.

In a preseason prediction, Tropical Storm Risk said it anticipated a nearly average season next year with 15 named storms, including seven hurricanes, three of which were expected to become major hurricanes of at least Category 3 strength.

However, the body acknowledged that there were still “large uncertainties”.

It added: “Historically the skill of the early December extended range forecast for North Atlantic hurricane activity is low.”

The 2025 Hurricane Season will not start until June 1, 2025; however, storms can and have formed before the official start of the season.

In its early forecast, published on December 10, the British organisation said: “TSR uses the forecast August-September sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic Main Development Region and the forecast July-September Caribbean trade wind anomaly over the region as predictors.”

The forecast said that surface waters were forecast to be warmer than average, which would support storm growth.

“There is reasonable confidence that sea surface temperatures in the tropical Atlantic and Caribbean Sea will be warmer than average which is an enhancing effect for hurricane activity,” TSR said.

“Sea surface temperatures across much of the Atlantic Ocean are well above average and we expect some persistence of these warm anomalies through 2025.

“In addition, two available climate models are predicting warmer than average sea-surface temperatures across much of the tropical Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean Sea through August-September 2025.”

TSR added that weaker-than-normal trade winds were anticipated with weak or neutral La Niña conditions expected to have relatively little impact on the season.

“This forecast has high uncertainty due to the current very warm sea surface temperature anomalies across much of the Atlantic Ocean and whether these warm anomalies will persist through spring and summer 2024.” the forecast added.

Last December, TSR forecast a busier-than-average 2024 season with 20 named storms including nine hurricanes, four of which were forecast to become major hurricanes.

The 2024 season did prove to be busier than average with 18 named storms including 11 hurricanes, five of which became major hurricanes.