Sea temperatures well above average in the Atlantic are likely to drive a “dynamic and potentially volatile” setting for hurricanes and tropical storms in 2025.

The US-based forecast agency AccuWeather reported that its hurricane experts had drawn similarities between the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season, which runs from June 1 to the end of November, and the “historic and destructive season” last year.

In particular, Hurricane Helene, which ploughed into the southeastern US last September, inflicted estimated damages of $225 to $250 billion.

The agency forecast 13 to 18 named storms this year, seven to ten of which were expected to build into hurricanes.

Tropical storms are typically assigned a name after they attain a strength of at least 39mph. They become hurricanes once they develop sustained winds of 75mph.

AccuWeather predicted that three to five storms would strengthen into “major” hurricanes, defined as Category 3 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson scale.

Category 3 hurricanes contain maximum sustained winds of 111 to 129mph.

The agency said it expected fewer named storms this year compared with 2024, but added: “The total number of storms is not truly what defines a hurricane season; it is the impacts to land and populated areas.”

Tropical development could come as early as May, driven by “exceptionally warm water temperatures expected across much of the Atlantic basin”.

The minimum temperature threshold for tropical system development is typically about 80F (27C).

Areas at risk of direct impact include a swathe of the US from the southern tip of Texas through Florida and the Carolinas, along with Atlantic Canada and the northeastern Caribbean, as well as Bermuda.

The agency highlighted the rapid build-up of hurricanes in warm waters near the coast as “a troubling trend with deadly outcomes in recent years”.

Another factor is the position of the Bermuda-Azores High, a massive body of high atmospheric pressure that deflects storms and influences their curving course as they proceed west.

It typically parks near Bermuda during the summers but its location shifts.

Waters off West Africa were cooler for part of last year’s season, causing a lull in storm activity, while dry and dusty air moving from the Sahara Desert over the Atlantic can suppress tropical development.

Jonathan Porter, the agency’s chief meteorologist, advised early preparation.

He said: “Climatology, weather patterns, water temperatures and many other factors all point to yet another active Atlantic hurricane season with more tropical storms and hurricanes forming.”