An early forecast has warned that the upcoming hurricane season could be busier than average based on environmental conditions.

Colorado State University’s Department of Atmospheric Science released its April forecast, predicting above-normal storm activity this year.

The CSU forecast that the Atlantic would record 17 named storms including nine hurricanes, four of which would become “major hurricanes” of at least Category 3 strength.

The prediction is higher than the modern average of 14.4 named storms with 7.2 hurricanes including 3.2 major hurricanes.

The forecast comes after AccuWeather predicted 13 to 18 named storms this year, seven to ten of which were expected to build into hurricanes.

The CSU forecast cited factors including sea surface water temperatures and the El Niño-Southern Oscillation, which can inhibit or encourage storm development depending on its phase.

“Current La Niña conditions are likely to transition to ENSO-neutral conditions in the next couple of months. However, there remains considerable uncertainty as to what the phase of ENSO will be this summer and fall,” the forecast said.

“Sea surface temperatures across the eastern and central Atlantic are generally warmer than normal but not as warm as they were last year at this time.

“A warmer-than-normal tropical Atlantic combined with likely ENSO-neutral or potential La Niña conditions typically provides a more conducive dynamic and thermodynamic environment for hurricane formation and intensification.”

The forecast also warned that there was an above-average possibility of major hurricanes making landfall during the season.

“As with all hurricane seasons, coastal residents are reminded that it only takes one hurricane making landfall to make it an active season,” the CSU added.

“Thorough preparations should be made every season, regardless of predicted activity.”

The CSU forecast, however, cautioned that early forecasts could not precisely predict hurricane activity.

“The early April forecast is the earliest seasonal forecast issued by Colorado State University and has modest long-term skill when evaluated in hindcast mode,” the forecast stated.

“The skill of CSU’s forecast updates increases as the peak of the Atlantic hurricane season approaches.”

Last April, CSU forecast that the 2024 season would be “extremely active” with 23 named storms, including 11 hurricanes, five of which would become major hurricanes.

While the year was busier than average, it featured fewer overall storms than forecast with 17 named storms including 11 hurricanes and five major hurricanes.

The 2025 hurricane season officially begins on June 1 and ends on November 30. However, storms can and have formed outside the season.